Public Lecture by Professor Wolfgang Lutz

Low fertility, human capital development and economic growth in an international context

Over the past decades, birth rates have not only been declining steeply in many industrialised countries but also in an increasing number of developing countries. Among East Asian populations (including Singapore) fertility has even declined to levels lower than in Europe.

In the lecture we will first discuss this global pattern of fertility decline, the reasons behind it and its likely future outlook. Thereafter, we will bring it into the context of new work on modelling human capital formation as described by the changing composition of populations by age and level of educational attainment. Finally, the findings will be linked to economic age-dependency and more generally, economic growth. This will allow us then to address some fundamental questions such as: What is the economically desirable level of fertility? Can better-educated young people through higher productivity compensate for a smaller workforce? What can be the role of international labour migration in this? These questions will be addressed in an international context but also with a specific view on Singapore.

Please click here to view the programme.


Downloads

• Presentation Slides by Professor Wolfgang Lutz, Low Fertility Human Capital Development and Economic Growth in an International Context
• Lecture by Professor Wolfgang Lutz (Soundcloud)

Media Coverage

• My Paper. 2013. Ageing population won’t slow growth, says expert. 20 February
• The Straits Times. 2013. Future elderly likely to be productive in their 70s: Expert. 20 February
• Yahoo News. 2013. Singapore population likely to hit 6.1 million by 2030. 20 February