China-India Brief #26

Guest Column

The China discourse in India

By Shai Venkatraman and Dev Lewis

For the last six decades, India has viewed China with suspicion and through the prism of a war. Two chronological points highlight this – 1959, when China annexed Tibet and India offered shelter to the Dalai Lama, and 1962, when India lost a short war with China over a disputed northern border, and China aligned with Pakistan, India’s principal security threat.

Over the past decade, both countries have chosen to separate the issues of contention from areas of cooperation. Today China is India’s largest trading partner, with over $65 billion in trade in 2013, up from $2 billion in 2000. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang made India his first overseas visit in March 2013, and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Beijing in October that year, and signed a Border Defence Cooperation Agreement. The year 2014 is jointly observed as the “Year of Friendly Exchanges.”

Few of these positive overtures are reflected in the mainstream media in India or China. According to Simon Shen, who wrote a paper on the online Chinese perception of India in September 2011, the unfriendly bilateral images in the popular media could have far-reaching implications for future China-India relations. There has been no similar study on the portrayal of China in the Indian media. Gateway House, Mumbai, has made the first such examination of the Indian media’s role in shaping Indian perceptions of China. We selected a recent time-frame – 1 January 2012 to 1 January 2014 – and identified particular aspects of the India-China bilateral relationship as our focus.

We selected a sample of reports on China from the mainstream Indian newspapers and TV channels both Hindi and English, business and non-business, wire agencies and online chat forums. Our sample included conventional English news sources like the Times of India, The Hindu, the Hindustan Times, Livemint, Economic Times, Hindu Businessline, Firstpost and Rediff. From Hindi newspapers we chose Dainik Jagran and Navbharat Times; and from the wire agency Press Trust of India. TV channels included Times Now, NDTV, CNN-IBN, Aaj Tak, ABPTV, and Rajya Sabha TV which is part of the national broadcaster Doordarshan.

We analysed reports relating to specific incidents and events during this period, like the arrest of Indian traders in Yiwu in China, the Depsang and Chumar border incidents and the annual India-China Strategic Economic Dialogues which have given a fillip to the relationship after Chinese President Xi Jinpeng took charge in 2013. The reports were divided into three categories – positive, negative and neutral. Positive reports showed China in a positive light, through its achievements, or if it acted in a manner friendly to India. Negative reports mention China acting as an aggressor towards India or against Indian interests. Neutral reports stated facts or reported an event.

Of the 148 newspaper reports studied, there were two negative reports for every positive one, with 39% of the articles focusing on border or security issues. A full 45% of the reports were negative, 31% were neutral and 24% were positive. There was scant mention of the significant gains made during the annual India-China Strategic Economic Dialogues or India and China’s growing cooperation on issues like climate change, trade and the oil industry in South Sudan. While all major print publications covered Li Keqiang’s visit, the coverage itself was limited, without analysis of the economic benefits from the eight agreements signed across industries. Opinion pieces were highly critical of the visit, focusing only on the border issue.

Similarly China’s offer to invest $300 billion in India’s infrastructure over the next five years was barely covered by the mainstream media, though the business papers did publish details of the working groups set up to address the growing trade deficit between the two countries. In contrast, the response on the online discussion forums was largely positive with many acknowledging the economic benefits. A minority expressed mistrust, citing Chinese spying, and the poor quality of Chinese technology.

It is the business papers in India which seem to have made a much fairer case for China. There is an understanding of the commercial advantages of dealing with China despite the strategic differences, and mostly positive reportage on the Chinese offer to fund infrastructure development in India, as well as the willingness on the part of Chinese telecom firms to comply with security checks for foreign spyware – unlike the European telecom firms like Blackberry which declined to do so.

The economic aspects of the bilateral relationship find little reflection in TV channels. The tone across all channels was strident and reached fever pitch when it came to Depsang and Chumar even though both governments issued statements downplaying the incidents. Primetime shows with provocative titles like Should India trust China and Will India react to China’s defiance highlighted the historical ‘betrayal.’ There was no nuance visible nor any attempt to reflect the differing perceptions over the borders. India’s strategic advantage in Chumar, subsequently brought out in a Gateway House security briefing, found no mention.

Part of this one-dimensional coverage is due to limited access: just four Indian media houses – three newspapers and a wire agency – have reporters based in Beijing. The rest rely on international wire agencies – and their residual biases – while Indian TV has no presence at all in China. Barring The Hindu reporter, the others rarely travel out of Beijing, as travel and accommodation costs are not reimbursed to correspondents.

Just how damaging the impact of such slanted coverage can be became evident when a diplomatic crisis erupted following the arrest of the Indian traders in Yiwu in early 2012. The Indian media claimed the traders were humiliated and jailed and an Indian diplomat attacked by local traders. The escalating tensions led to both India and China issuing travel advisories to their citizens. The discussion on online forums turned especially ugly and abusive.

It later emerged that though the traders were jailed, neither they nor the diplomat were mistreated. To a substantial extent, the misrepresentation can be attributed to an information vacuum as very little information is shared by the government. So the media has at the most joint statements, communiqués or official briefings to work from.  

The two governments are working hard to contain the bias through their foreign ministries, youth and sports departments and commercial envoys. Regular youth exchanges have begun, as have joint production of films, Mandarin language classes in Indian government schools and the organisation of business forums where think tanks and policy groups from both countries can regularly interact.

Perhaps by 2015, bilateral perceptions will be more in line with bilateral realities.

Shai Venkatraman and Dev Lewis are Authors at Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations, Mumbai.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

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News Reports

Bilateral relations

China hopes for smooth Indian election: FM spokesman
Xinhua, April 8
China hopes India’s general election proceeds smoothly, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a daily press briefing. India’s parliamentary elections began on Monday. The ruling Congress party and the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a nationalist party, have led pre-election surveys. The election is seen as an opportunity for India to start a new beginning in its development after a decade-long rule by the Congress party and its allies.

China, India vow to advance strategic cooperation, partnership
Xinhua, April 14
High-ranking officials from China and India vowed on Monday to advance the strategic cooperative partnership between the two countries as they met in Beijing. Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin and Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh held strategic talks in the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse. Liu said China is ready to work with India to advance the partnership to a new level. Sujatha said all political parties in India share a common ground on advancing India-China strategic cooperative partnership. He expressed the belief that no matter which political party comes to the rein through the general election later this year, India’s policy toward China will not be changed.

India to join China Navy exercise; Japan, U.S. keep out
The Hindu, April 11
India has decided to send the naval stealth frigate INS Shivalik to participate in an international fleet review and maritime exercise hosted by the Chinese Navy on April 23 – an exercise that has acquired particular diplomatic significance with the United States declining to join the review after Japan was excluded from the event. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is hosting the review and exercise in the North-eastern port of Qingdao, the headquarters of its North Sea fleet, as it prepares to mark its 65th anniversary with great fanfare. Chinese President Xi Jinping is also expected to preside over the celebrations. At least 10 countries have so far confirmed their participation in the fleet review and exercise, including India, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, Indonesia and Pakistan, according to a provisional list. China invited Japan’s Navy chief to attend the WPNS, but the PLAN decided to exclude Japan.

Chinese media assess Modi, Rahul, bilateral prospects
The Hindu, April 13
The media in China, which has been carefully following the ongoing elections in India, has appeared divided in its assessment of whether or not the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls will impact India-China relations. Media outlets here have devoted most attention to the prospects of Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, but from the perspective of how either leader might influence diplomacy with China. “If Rahul Gandhi gets elected, it’s very likely that he will follow the current China policy of the Congress Party. As with Modi who is famous for ‘development’, we can expect more economic interactions between India and China. What’s more, as a pragmatic and assertive political leader, it’s possible that Modi will bring his style into the Sino-India relationship,” wrote the Reference News, one of China’s mostly wide newspapers, published by the official Xinhua news agency.

China ‘confident’ that good ties ‘consensus of all Indian parties’
The Hindu, April 14
A senior official said the Chinese government was “confident” that the new government that takes charge in New Delhi following the Lok Sabha elections – no matter which party was in power – would ensure friendly ties with Beijing, as both sides held strategic talks aimed at laying the groundwork for a series of high-level engagements in coming months.  “We are confident that to promote China-India friendship is a shared consensus of all political parties in India. So I am confident that whichever party comes into power in India it will stay committed to friendship and cooperation between the two countries”, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin, who is also the Foreign Ministry’s main interlocutor on India, told reporters, speaking ahead of the sixth round of the annual strategic dialogue, which took place in Beijing at the Diaoyutai State guesthouse.

China to be a focus of India’s BJP party
Radio Australia, April 14
India’s opposition Bharatiya Janata Party has released its campaign manifesto. The document has a heavy emphasis on economic growth and trade, but offers little glimpses of what the wider world might expect of a BJP-led government. Research associate in the international security program at the Lowy Institute Danielle Rajendram told Radio Australia’s Asia Pacific program there’s a great deal of unknown on how the BJP might handle relations in the region. “Foreign policy hasn’t featured prominently in this election campaign, which has instead, focussed on issues of economic growth and governance,” he said. “What we can tell about Narendra Modi’s foreign policy is that economic growth is going to be his main priority, and this will weigh very heavily on his foreign policy decision-making.” Mr Rajendram says relations with Beijing are likely to be a top priority of a Narendra Modi-led government. “China will be a really important economic partner for India, and despite the fact that Narendra Modi has made some strong statements with regards to territorial incursions in disputed territories, from China, Modi has also during his time as chief minister, made four separate state visits to China and has built up economic links between his state and China,” he said.

China, India vow to advance strategic cooperation, partnership
Global Times, April 15
High-ranking officials from China and India vowed on Monday to advance the strategic cooperative partnership between the two countries as they met in Beijing. Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin said China is ready to work with India to advance the partnership to a new level. Liu said China is ready to maintain the momentum of high-level contact and exchange of visit with India, enhance mutual trust on strategic level, expand practical cooperation and friendly exchanges and strengthen communication and cooperation on major regional and international issues. He said China is ready to work with India to properly manage and address disputes.

Will review India, China border defence agreement if elected: Rajnath Singh
Live Mint, April 15 
Attacking the incumbent Manmohan Singh government over signing a Border Defence Cooperation Agreement with China, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Rajnath Singh on Tuesday said if voted to power, his party would review the agreement and asserted they would give a “befitting reply” to any neighbouring country which tries to intimidate India along the border. “Soldiers from Pakistan and China cross over this side repeatedly. But our Prime Minister Manmohan Singh went to Beijing in October 2013 and entered into an agreement with them that if Chinese Army enters, then Indian army will not drive it out, instead will request Chinese troops to return back with hands folded,” Singh told a public rally in Udhampur.

Youth minister to call off China trip
Global Times, April 21
India Youth Affairs Minister Jitendra Singh threatened to call off a youth exchange activity with China after reports that China decided to exclude Indian youth delegates from Southern Tibet, a disputed area between the two Asian neighbors, the Indian Express reported. Singh shot off a strongly worded letter to External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid, asking him to cancel the trip unless China drops the condition, the New Delhi-based Indian newspaper reported.

Ancient Buddhist center in India hungry for Chinese investment
Want China Times, April 18
Local officials in the eastern Indian state of Bihar are trying to attract foreign investments and revive the area’s former glory–known as the original site of the first recorded activities of Siddhartha, or Buddha, that once made it the center of the Maurya Empire of India in the 3rd century BC and visited by pilgrims from China and other countries some 1,500 years ago. Despite its rich cultural heritage, the area has remained poor and underdeveloped but there are now serious efforts to transform the state’s agriculture-based economy into one that will be anchored on industrial and trade-based development through investments in food processing, manufacturing, mining and other export products. During a meeting with a joint delegation from the Chinese Embassy and Chinese consulate general in Kolkata led by Chinese Ambassador to India Wei Wei this week, the local chapter of the Indian Chamber of Commerce expressed an interest in promoting cooperation with Chinese enterprises, particularly those involved in food processing, tourism, traditional Chinese medicine, and exports.

China says no to Arunachal youth in India delegation, minister says let’s call off trip
The Indian Express, April 20
In what could escalate into another India-China diplomatic row, Beijing has asked New Delhi not to include youth from Arunachal Pradesh in the annual youth exchange delegation next month, leading to protests from the Youth Affairs Ministry that now wants the entire exchange stopped. Youth Affairs Minister Jitendra Singh has shot off a strongly worded letter to External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid, asking him to cancel the trip unless China drops the condition. “I believe these incremental steps by China to challenge India’s sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh and its other territories must be nipped in the bud, lest these lead to bigger and more direct challenges. Hence, youth from Arunachal Pradesh should form part of the youth delegation from India to China and if this is not acceptable, the exchange of youth delegation should be stopped,” wrote Singh, who is also Minister of State for Defence.

News Reports

China and India in the Region

Americans facing competition from India, China: Obama
The Hindu, April 8
United States President Barack Obama has said that Americans are facing competition from India and China and exuded confidence that young Americans can match or exceed anything that they do. “You guys are all coming up in an age where you’re not going to be able to compete with people across town for good jobs —— you’re going to be competing with the rest of the world. Young people in India and China, they’re all interested in trying to figure out how they get a foothold in this world economy,” Mr. Obama said while addressing students in Maryland on Monday. “That’s who you’re competing against. Now, I’m confident you can match or exceed anything they do, but we don’t do it by just resting on what we’ve done before. We’ve got to out-work and out-innovate and out-hustle everybody else.

India, China among world’s poorest countries
Deccan Herald, April 10
With close to one-third of the world’s extreme poor concentrated in India and another one-third in four more countries, a sharp focus on them will be central to ending extreme poverty, says a new World Bank paper. The top five poorest countries – India (with 33 percent of the world’s poor), China (13 percent), Nigeria (7 percent), Bangladesh (6 percent) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (5 percent) – together are home to nearly 760 million of the world’s poor. Adding another five countries — Indonesia, Pakistan, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Kenya — would encompass almost 80 percent of the extreme poor.

Official: India will need to hike defense spending by 30% to narrow gap with China
Defense News, April 14
Indian defense planners will need to hike defense spending by at least 30 percent for about 10 years to narrow the military differences between India and China, said an Indian Army official. China spends over $100 billion on defense annually, about triple that of India’s more than $33 billion. India will spend $150 billion in the next 10 years on new weapons from overseas and domestic sources, the Indian Army official. However, boosting spending 30 percent would require an additional $50 billion. Given the current state of the Indian economy with an annual growth of less than 5 percent and a high fiscal deficit, the government will find it very difficult to find the additional money, said Nitin Mehta, a defense analyst. India’s strategy of being able to fight China and Pakistan simultaneously will be difficult to achieve because of its slow pace of weapons acquisition, adds Mehta. 

India expresses concern over China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
The Economic Times, April 14
India today voiced its concern to China over its plan to build a multi-billion dollar Economic Corridor to Pakistan through POK, even as it assured Beijing of its commitment to consolidate strategic bilateral ties. “We have raised this issue and raised our concerns not (only) this time, we have made them known earlier. They have noted our concerns,” Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh told reporters here after holding the sixth round of Strategic Dialogue with her Chinese counterpart Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin.

China accelerates planning to re-connect Maritime Silk Road
Global Times, April 16
The Chinese government is stepping up the planning of reviving the Maritime Silk Road in the 21st century, with port construction as the priority, local media reported on Wednesday. The plan is expected to focus on infrastructure construction of countries along the route, including ports of Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, the China Securities Journal said. China will coordinate customs, quality supervision, e-commerce and other agencies to facilitate the scheme, which is also likely to contain attempts to build free trade zones. The Maritime Silk Road dates back to as early as 2,000 years ago, when ancient merchants sailed from China’s eastern coast, passing Southeast Asia, Southernmost of India and East Africa, all the way to the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, strengthening economic ties and cultural communication.

India, China boycott high-level meeting on global partnership
The Economic Times, April 17
India and China boycotted a high-level meeting on global partnership for development cooperation as the two major economies had concerns over the conference’s approach to South-South cooperation and the binding nature of the meeting’s outcome document. The first High-level Meeting of the Global Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation (GPEDC) was held in Mexico City on April 15. Both India and China had specific issues of concern on aspects relating to developing countries especially with regards to South-South cooperation. The two sides were also concerned that the Mexico High Level Meeting Communique, adopted after the meeting concluded, would become a “binding input” to UN processes especially when all member states were not present at the meeting.

China rejects India’s consulate plea
Global Times, April 18
China has rejected a proposal by India to set up its Consulate General Office in Lhasa, Tibet Autonomous Region, during the China-India sixth strategic talks held in Beijing. India will plan to establish another office in Chengdu, Sichuan Province or Kunming, Yunnan Province, according to the report.

Like India, China too concerned over Taliban, Al-Qaeda return in Afghanistan
Business Standard, April 18
Like India, China has also reportedly expressed its concern over the Taliban and Al-Qaeda regaining control over most parts of Afghanistan, after NATO troops exit from the war-torn nation at the end of this year. Beijing is said to have voiced and flagged this concern with India during their sixth annual strategic dialogue at the level of foreign secretaries earlier this week. The Chinese Government, according to a report in the Daily Excelsior, worried about the emergence of the Taliban and Al Qaeda having a destabilising effect on China’s Muslim-dominant Uygur Xinjiang Province, which has suffered from a series of terror attacks in recent times.

China’s ‘maritime Silk Road’ to focus on infrastructure
The Hindu, April 20
China has for the first time released details of its recently announced “maritime Silk Road” plan, announcing that the Indian Ocean-focused initiative will prioritise building ports and improving infrastructure in littoral countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. China is also planning to establish free trade zones in Indian Ocean countries as part of the plan — a move that will reinforce China’s deepening economic presence in the Indian Ocean Region and in India’s neighbourhood. The maritime Silk Road plan was unveiled in October 2013 when President Xi Jinping travelled to Southeast Asia. Since then, Chinese officials have highlighted the initiative as a key diplomatic priority for Mr. Xi’s government.

Indian warship in China for first joint exercise with Pakistan, others
The Times of India, April 21
Indian warship INS Shivalik arrived in eastern China’s Qingdao port to participate in a multination naval show from Wednesday. This is the first time navies of India and Pakistan are jointly participating in an international naval demonstration in a third country, sources said. Warships from seven countries including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Singapore have arrived in Qingdao. The port has also received a patrol boat from Brunei and an amphibious dock landing ship from Indonesia. Australia is also expected to participate.

News Reports

Trade and Economy

China, India have huge room for cooperation
Xinhua, April 9
Ratan Tata, former chairman of Indian multinational conglomerate Tata Group, on Wednesday said Chinese and Indian markets had plenty of potential for cooperation. At the ongoing Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2014, Tata said China offers many opportunities for Indian businesses, but they failed to grasp many. Chinese companies can also enter the Indian market and set up joint ventures there, he said. When being asked what he would like to say during a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Thursday, Tata said he would talk about Sino-Indian economic cooperation.

India Under Narendra Modi Could Be Japan’s Best Friend
Bloomberg Businessweek, April 10
The results of national elections in India, expected to be announced on May 16, could mean good news for Japan and not such good news for China. Narendra Modi, the leader of the Hindu nationalist opposition party, has long been a favorite of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who would like to foster military and economic ties with India. Modi, the front-runner in the contest to be India’s prime minister, and Abe also share an antagonism for China. Modi has criticized the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for being too accommodating toward China and has pledged to take a tougher line on issues such as the border dispute between the two countries that has festered for decades.

China tops foreign investors in Nepal
Global Times, April 11
Of the total number of foreign investors doing business in Nepal, investors from China are of the largest number, a government report said on Thursday. According to a report released by Department of Industry (DoI), a government agency that approves foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Himalayan country, 1,260 Chinese investors and firms have introduced investment projects in Nepal since the country accepted FDI. Indian investors come after Chinese in terms of number. So far, 708 investors from Indian have brought in their investment here in Nepal which is 17 percent of the total foreign investors. However, in terms of investment amount, Indian investors top the chart. Nepal has received a sum of 1.25 billion US dollars from Indian investors in different 581 industries so far. Chinese investors have brought in 160 million US dollars in FDI through 632 industries so far in Nepal.

Failure to act on IMF reform damages G20 leadership: senior Chinese official
Xinhua, April 11
Failure to act on the much-delayed International Monetary Fund (IMF) quota and governance reform will seriously damage the leadership of G20, a senior Chinese official warned Thursday. “I think that 2010 quota and governance reform is good for everyone. We’ve been working on that for several years, and it’s already reached consensus,” Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said at a seminar held here at the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring meeting. The IMF’s Board of Governors approved the quota and governance reform package in December 2010. The plan included a doubling of IMF quotas and a shift in quotas to dynamic emerging markets and under-represented countries, and a proposed amendment to reform the executive board that would facilitate a move to a more representative and all-elected 24-member board. If the reform package is implemented, four large emerging economies, namely China, India, Russia and Brazil, will all become top 10 shareholders of the Washington-based global lender.

India, China car sales shrink on economic slowdown
Gulf Times, April 12
Sales of India’s once-booming passenger car segment shrank for a second year, hit by a sharp economic slowdown and high borrowing costs that kept customers away from showrooms, data showed. Meanwhile, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said in a statement yesterday that growth in auto sales in China – the world’s biggest car market – slowed sharply in March as the economy weakens.  In China, sales of all types of vehicles rose 6.6% year-on-year to 2.17mn units in the month, the CAAM said in a statement. Growth decelerated from a 17.8% surge in February. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) said it hoped for a “moderate improvement” this year with a new government due to take power after marathon elections in the country of 1.2bn that began this week. The industry body had initially forecast passenger car sales growth of three-to-five per cent in 2013-14 but saw its hopes dashed.  India’s passenger car market was in negative growth territory a decade ago. Longer-term, the car industry is upbeat on prospects due to still low ownership levels and the country’s rapidly increasing middle class. In China, sales of passenger vehicles alone expanded 7.9% on-year to 1.71mn units in March, the CAAM said, citing strong demand for sport utility vehicles and multi-purpose vehicles. But Chinese brands recorded only a 39.3% market share for March in the passenger car segment, it said.

China, India face huge economic and human costs from cancer: Experts
Zee News, April 13
China and India, the two most populous countries of the world are facing a cancer crisis, experts said. In a report, published in The Lancet Oncology, more than 40 specialists warn Asia’s big two emerging giants of facing huge economic and human costs from the disease. The report said that tobacco-use, belated diagnosis and unequal access to healthcare facilities are the main reasons behind the rise of cancer in India. The report showed that sixty percent of cancer cases in China are attributable to “modifiable environmental factors,” including smoking, water contamination and air pollution.

‘A Chinese slowdown is not good for India’
The Hindu, April 13
Nalinakanthi V interviewed Gopal Agrawal of Mirae Asset Investment. According to him, China’s economic slowdown is not positive for India. He further stated, “China is rebalancing its economy to focus on domestic consumption-led industries instead of infrastructure and export-led growth. In my view, their GDP may not slip below 7 per cent; being a communist country, it needs to create jobs to maintain quality of life for its people. Higher prices of most industrial commodities, barring oil, actually benefit us. Because this will help our basic industries, increase tax revenues and create employment. For instance, the Indian economy grew fastest in FY08; that was when China grew 11.4 per cent and oil was at 78-80$/barrel. So it’s the oil and gas price which is a concern and not China. China’s growth is a boon to India.”

India behind China in IP generation: Cisco
The Times of India, April 13
Even as startups have mushroomed in India over the last few months, the country is yet to reach the scale of intellectual property (IP) generation being seen in nations like China and Israel, technology giant Cisco CEO John Chambers said. “The Indian market has to do a lot more (with) startups, create that entrepreneurial spirit at a faster scale. I am committed to India, but it has not taken off in terms of IP generated anywhere like China or Israel,” Chambers told PTI in an interview. He said Indian universities can play a bigger role in fostering entrepreneurship and the spirit for innovation. “If you look at the investment community, venture capitalists, many of them flooded into India thinking this will be the next wave of start-ups… We have to get that entrepreneurial spirit, at a larger scale in India,” he said. 

W. Asia, China will drive farm exports
The Hindu, April 16
Agricultural exports, particularly spices, fruits and marine products, are likely to increase along with food grains as demand from West Asia and China continues to increase, according to S Sivakumar, GroupHead – Agri and IT Businesses, ITC Ltd. But in the long term, India could turn a net importer as domestic consumption is increasing. “Indian exports will continue to grow as China has turned a large importer. In the long run, however, we could turn a net importer since consumption here is rising,” he said during an interaction with Business Line and The Hindu. ITC’s agricultural exports have quadrupled to $40 million in the last few years with marine products shipments growing rapidly, he said. “But we could become a country which could export something (specific variety of a commodity) and import something (another variety of the same commodity),” Sivakumar said.

China’s economy grows at 7.4% in first quarter
The Times of India, April 16
China’s economic growth slowed further to 7.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2014, showing signs of waning momentum despite reforms, innovation and restructuring by the Chinese leadership to revitalise the world’s second largest economy. The first-quarter growth exceeded market estimates of 7.3 per cent, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. However, this is the slowest pace at which the Chinese economy has grown in the past 18 months after it registered a 7.4 per cent growth in the third quarter of 2012. Wang Jun, a senior researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said the government has taken significant measures in March targeting tax reductions, simplification of administrative procedures as well as planned to step up railway investment and renovation of shanty towns to improve the economy. 

China takes sheen off India’s gold business
Deccan Chronicle, April 16
After losing the number one position as the world’s largest consumers of gold to China in 2013, India could also lose out in gold jewellery manufacturing to China as Asia’s largest economy has embarked on major policy reforms to make it an important gold manufacturing and trading centre in the world. “Markets are abuzz with the possibility of India’s jewellery manufacturers shifting their bases to China as they have managed to put in place strong institutional mechanisms to enable trading and manufacturing of gold. If India continues to constrain the industry with import curbs and does not invest in skill development and build institutional mechanisms as China did, we could slowly loose our manufacturing base to China,” said P.R.Somasundaram, managing director, World Gold Council.

Coca-Cola Q1 sales volume soars in China
Global Times, April 16
Strong sales volume growth in China helped the Coca-Cola Co beat quarterly revenue estimates as lower-priced, smaller soda bottles and juices attracted more price and health-conscious shoppers in the country, Reuters reported Wednesday. Case volumes in China rose 12 percent in the first quarter of the year, boosted by marketing campaigns around the key Chinese Lunar New Year holiday shopping period, helping drive a global 2 percent rise in volumes. Brazil, India and Russia also saw strong volume sales growth.

India’s cotton exports hit as China changes policy
Global Times, April 17
Indian raw cotton exports are expected to plummet around 20 percent in the next crop year, with demand from China fading as it unwinds a controversial stockpiling scheme. That would be greater than the nearly 6 percent drop touted for this year, with the change in Chinese policy coming on top of rising cotton consumption in India and a spurt in exports of finished yarn, industry officials said. Cotton markets around the world have been watching closely as China abandons a stockpiling scheme under which it has amassed more than 10 million tons of the fibre – accounting for around 60 percent of global cotton inventories. “Cotton exports have been falling year-on-year and we will not be able to export more than 7-7.5 million bales in 2014-15” said M.B. Lal, managing director of Shail Exports and former chairman of the Cotton Corporation of India.

India, China support Philippines’ bid to curb rice imports
The Hindu Business Line, April 18
India and China have supported the Philippines’ request to the World Trade Organisation for continuing its import restrictions on rice in line with its food security needs. The US, Canada, Australia and Thailand, though, are playing hard ball. They have said that they were still consulting with the Philippines, a person who attended the recent WTO’s council for trade in goods meeting told Business Line. The Philippines has sought the WTO’s approval to continue with the quantitative restrictions on rice imports until 2017. “India has been fighting for all developing countries at the WTO to ensure that their rights to food security are not breached. The Philippines’ request should be supported by all countries,” a Government official told Business Line.

News Reports

Energy and Environment

Nepal, China join hands in tacking climate change
Global Times, April 8
China and Nepal on Monday signed several memorandums of understanding (MoUs) in the framework of the Third Pole Environment program. The Third Pole Environment (TPE) program, launched by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in 2009, was dedicated to the study of regions on the Tibetan Plateau; home to millions of people and thousands of glaciers. Prof. Bai Chunli, president of CAS, and members of his delegation, visited Tribhuvan University (TU), the oldest public university in Nepal, where a Third Pole Environment Center has been established. The Chinese delegation also visited the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to discuss ways to enhance cooperation between the two institutions. ICIMOD is a regional intergovernmental learning and knowledge sharing center serving the eight regional member countries of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan.

Climate Change: India Advised To Take Necessary Measures
InSerbia News, April 9
While India may be one of the top seven contributors to global temperature change, the South Asian country is not as big a villain as it is projected when one takes into account its population. As far as contribution to temperature change between 1750 and 2005 is concerned, the US topped the list with 20%. It is followed by China (8%), Russia (8%), Brazil (7%), India (7%), Germany (5%) and the UK (5%). However, India does need to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, if it does not want to end up at pole position of notoriety. In its latest report, the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed impacts of the climate change on human health, settlements and natural resources. According to the report, Asia is facing the brunt of climate change and the continent will experience severe stress on water resources and food-grain production in the coming years. As a result, the UN warned, there would be an increase in the risk of armed conflict among four Asian countries – India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China.

India’s energy elephant only beginning to rumble
The National, April 13
The world’s biggest election features 814 million eligible voters and takes five weeks. Indians are hoping the new government will accelerate growth and tackle the burden of poverty – only achievable by solving the country’s entrenched energy challenges. But if the Indian economy does break into a run, it could emerge as one of the leaders in global energy markets, according to Robin Mills. India’s 1.2 billion population is now not far behind China’s 1.3 billion, and if we add its Subcontinental neighbours, 1.6 billion makes this the planet’s most populous region. While China may be leaving the era of resource-intensive growth, India could be entering it – and unlike China’s ageing population, India’s remains youthful and fast-growing. But this take-off will not happen without reliable, affordable energy. Three-hundred million Indians still lack electricity and 700 million cook with wood or dung. The poor need access to modern energy to avoid lung disease from indoor smoke, to allow children to study at night, and for farmers to pump water and grow crops. To create jobs, manufacturing industries require dependable electricity supplies, exposed in the great blackout of July 2012. The expanding middle classes clamour for fuel for their vehicles, power for their fridges and air-conditioners. And all want clean air and water.

Smog in India, China is changing weather patterns in US, finds study
Aljazeera America, April 15
Man-made air pollution kills millions of people every year, but a new study suggests that poor air quality in India and China could be contributing to extreme weather patterns in the U.S. and Canada. The study by researchers at Texas A&M, the first of its kind to focus on smog in Asia, found that air pollution originating in the region almost certainly affects global weather patterns. How much of an effect, researchers say, remains to be seen. However, it is likely exacerbating problems already caused by climate change: increasing the intensity and frequency of storms, ice cap melting, sea level rise, and drought. “This pollution directly affects our weather,” Renyi Zhang, professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M and lead author of the study, said in a statement. “During the past few decades, there has been a dramatic increase in atmospheric aerosols — mostly sulfate and soot from coal burning — especially in China and India,” he said. 

China set to elevate environment over development in new law
The Times of India, April 15
Smog-hit China is set to pass a new law that would give Beijing more powers to shut polluting factories and punish officials, and even place protected regions off-limits to industrial development, scholars with knowledge of the situation said. Long-awaited amendments to China’s 1989 Environmental Protection Law are expected to be finalised later this year, giving the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) greater authority to take on polluters. “(Upholding) environmental protection as the fundamental principle is a huge change, and emphasises that the environment is a priority,” said Cao Mingde, a law professor at the China University of Political Science and Law, who was involved in the drafting process. 

Setbacks aside, climate change is finding its way into the World’s classrooms
The New York Times, April 20
From Mauritius to Manitoba, climate change is slowly moving from the headlines to the classroom. Schools around the world are beginning to tackle the difficult issue of global warming, teaching students how the planet is changing and encouraging them to think about what they can do to help slow that process. All Indian schools are required to offer environmental education, but many struggle to provide even basic skills and conveying the complexities of climate science can be difficult, said Sukhprit Kaur, a coordinator in Bangalore for the environment education centre. Some nations teach climate in science classes and others in geography, while others again integrate the idea of sustainability across a range of subjects. China has included sustainability education in its outline for school reform, and Japan has written it into curriculum guidelines, according to UNESCO.

Developing nations criticize IPCC report
Live Mint, April 21
A group of developing countries has criticized the recently released report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for grouping nations according to their income, a move that may force some developing countries, including India, to adhere to binding pollution reduction targets. The report—Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change—released on 15 April, has categorized countries as low-level income, middle-level income and high-level income countries. The report was a dishonest attempt to divert attention from the current high level of emissions from rich countries, according to Shreekant Gupta, an associate professor in the department of economics at Delhi School of Economics and lead author of a chapter on risk and assessment of climate change policies. “IPCC is a pseudo-scientific body and its only purpose to include income-based classification is to bring attention to emerging economies like Brazil, China, India and South Africa, which are trying to lift their people out of energy poverty,” Gupta said. “It wrongly focuses on growth in emissions and not the absolute high levels of emissions or per capita emissions. SPM is totally silent on per capita emissions.”

China eyes new energy projects for greener development
Global Times, April 21
China will launch a number of major projects to restructure its energy layout and achieve a greener development with cleaner energy. China will push forward reform in energy production and consumption, and make energy use greener, said Premier Li Keqiang at the first meeting of the incumbent National Energy Commission on Friday, according to a press release issued on Sunday. China will embark on new nuclear power plants equipped with state-of-the-art safety measures on the eastern coast at a proper time, said Li.

Analyses and Commentaries

India elections: Change is in the air
China Daily, April 8
Ravi Velloor opines over which way India’s 814 million eligible voters decide over the next six weeks has global ramifications, particularly for Asia. With a population as large as China’s, Asia’s second-most powerful military and third-largest economy, India stands at a crossroads. A solid vote for opposition front runner Narendra Modi could hand India a strong government capable of tough decisions on several fronts, from fixing India’s infrastructure and labour laws to providing an investor-friendly climate and improving ties with key neighbours China and Pakistan. Strengthening demand from India spells good news for every sector of the Asian economy – from exports to tourism. Certainly, Mr Modi, one of India’s most controversial politicians and long-serving chief minister of the industrial state of Gujarat, is man enough for the job, even for a vast and complex nation like India.

A new foreign policy agenda
The Hindu, April 8
With an unsettled neighbourhood, an increasingly aggressive China and a politically weak and ambivalent U.S., India’s external environment is defined by uncertainty. Yet, according to Amitabh Mattoo, in all the party manifestoes released so far, the weakest sections are on foreign policy. The Congress manifesto, for instance, says: “We will continue to support the goodwill nurtured for decades amongst socialist countries”––a sentence that might have been crafted in the 1960s, 1970s or 1980, but which makes no sense today. The BJP seeks to blend, not very coherently, soft power: the task of “reviving” Brand India (on the strength of Tradition, Talent, Tourism, Trade and Technology) with the suggestion of a muscular foreign policy (“…where required we will not hesitate from taking strong stand and steps”). The CPI (M) will have “India join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as a full member,” except that membership is not India’s by right, but subject to the decision of the existing members in the council of heads of states. The Aam Aadmi Party wants to recover “Sino-Indian civilizational exchange” — whatever that means. And the Trinamool Congress believes that the world is “one single family,” but that national security is “upper most.” Unlike political parties and shoddy manifestoes, the new government of India will not have the luxury of engaging with a make-believe world. It will need to act with immediacy on at least three fronts.

Clean coal might work in China, but here’s why we won’t see much of it here
The Washington Post, April 10
China has invested heavily in clean coal technology, and if the research goes well, clean coal might prove enormously beneficial there — but perhaps less so in other countries, according to Max Ehrenferund. Clean coal is important to Chinese leaders partly because of the country’s large coal reserves. “They have so much coal, and their whole infrastructure is geared around coal,” said Kelly Sims Gallagher of Tufts University. The country has built many new coal plants in the last decade, and these plants could theoretically be retrofitted with new equipment to capture carbon dioxide. While clean coal might be more important than other clean sources of energy in China, other countries do not depend on coal in the same way that China does. In about ten years or so, India, not China, will be the largest source of new demand for energy, according to the International Energy Agency. While both countries have been building a fleet of colossal new coal-fired power plants, India does not have its own reserves of coal and has to rely on imports from places like Indonesia. Given the cost of shipping and (less so) the apparent tendency of Indonesian coal to burst into flames without warning, Indian officials might prefer to rely on solar power rather than clean coal if compelled to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions.

String of ports
The Indian Express, April 11
C Raja Mohanopines that in its manifesto released this week, the BJP promises to build new world-class ports and modernise the old ones all along the Indian coastline, as part of what it calls “port-led development”. The BJP’s name for the project, “Sagar Mala”, evokes, perhaps unintentionally, China’s “String of Pearls” in the Indian Ocean. Over the last decade, China has embarked on the construction of a number of ports in India’s neighbourhood, starting with Gwadar, in Pakistan, and Hambantota in Sri Lanka. New Delhi worries that some of these ports might turn into forward bases for the People’s Liberation Army. India’s immediate problem, however, is not the prospect of China acquiring military facilities in the Indian Ocean. Given the long and vulnerable lines of communication from China’s eastern seaboard to the Indian Ocean, China’s bases will be easy pickings in a war.

The tension between global norms and national interests
Washington Post, April 11
Fareed Zakaria highlights that Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has unified Western democracies, at least in their robust condemnation of the action. But farther afield, one sees a variety of responses that foreshadow the great emerging tension in 21st-century international life: between global norms and national interests. Consider the response of India, the world’s most populous democracy. New Delhi was mostly silent through the events of February and early March; it refused to support any sanctions against Russia, and its national security adviser declared that Russia had “legitimate” interests in Ukraine — all of which led Vladimir Putin to place a thank-you phone call to India’s prime minister.

Reviving the Maritime Silk Route
The Hindu, April 11
Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy looks at China’s attempts to revive the Maritime Silk Route. China is experiencing a “Deng Xiaoping Moment 2.0.” The new Chinese leadership seems fairly optimistic in its effort to reshape the country’s global posture in a bold and creative way, a key element of which is to build up an economic system through external cooperation. Undoubtedly, the proposal of reviving the Maritime Silk Route (MSR) demonstrates this innovative approach. Indeed, the success of the MSR initiative will be consequential to regional stability and global peace. It is little wonder then that this proposal has attracted enormous interests among policy makers and scholars.

Solid foundations of Sino-Indian relationship critical in turbulent times
People’s Daily, April 11
Lan Jianxue looks at Sino-Indian relations, which are going through a critical stage of rebalancing and repositioning, and have been attracting international attention in recent years. With high-level visits scheduled later in the year, China and India should grasp the golden opportunity to further cement the bilateral partnership. India is in a unique position in China’s diplomatic agenda, and Sino-Indian ties boast multiple positive attributes. The two countries are not only emerging nations in Asia, but also neighbours with border issues.

India elections: subtle foreign policy could take tougher line under Modi
The Guardian, April 11
Jason Burke states that election victory for Narendra Modi in India could bring about readjustment in the country’s relations with China, US and South Asian neighbours. Beijing, which according to Delhi-based analyst Manoj Joshi “systematically challenges the very idea of an Indian sphere of interest”, has used commerce, soft loans and technical assistance for major projects to make inroads in Sri Lanka as well as Nepal. China has made a push in Bangladesh too. While campaigning, Modi has already signalled a tougher line on ongoing border disputes with China and has said that he wants to see a “strong” India that cannot be “stared down” by other powers. In reality this may clash with a desire to build commercial partnerships regionally, said Michael Kugelman, an analyst at the Woodrow Wilson Centre in Washington. “His pro-business and pro-trade qualities will lead him to cultivate strong relations across the board … Yet at the same time, he will certainly react more strongly to provocations from neighbours than did the Congress-led government,” Kugelman said. One conflict Modi may have to fight is with his own diplomats, most of whom see the subtle, pragmatic complexity of policy over the last decade as in tune with “Indian”, and their own, sensibilities.

Dancing with the nuclear djinn
The Hindu, April 12
India’s next government will, without dispute, find itself dancing with the nuclear djinn says Praveen Swami. In its election manifesto, the Bharatiya Janata Party has promised to “study in detail India’s nuclear doctrine, and revise and update it to make it relevant to [the] challenges of current times.” Mr. Seshadri Chari, a member of the group that formulated this section of the party’s manifesto said: “why should we tie our hands into accepting a global no-first-use policy, as has been proposed by the Prime Minister recently?” For years, India has periodically suffered from dragon-under-the-bed nightmares — the prospect that a more aggressively nationalist China, whose conventional forces are expanding and modernising dramatically, could initiate a war to settle the two countries’ unresolved conflicts. China is bound by a no-first-use pledge, but some experts fear India’s conventional forces might be overwhelmed. It is improbable, though, that these losses would pose an existential threat to India.

Doing China’s Bidding in Nepal
The New York Times, April 12
The Editorial Board has analysed China-Nepal relations in the context of Tibet. A Human Rights Watch report released in April 2014 shows how far Nepal has gone in capitulating to Chinese pressure in cracking down on Tibetan residents and refugees. It details a long list of shameful actions against Tibetans in Nepal, including restrictions on their activities and movements, surveillance and intimidation, arbitrary detention and forcible return to China. In effect, Nepal has turned itself into a partner of China’s anti-Tibetan policies. Nepal has long been a way station for Tibetans fleeing China. Many continue on to India, where the Dalai Lama lives and where they can obtain refugee status. Still, some 20,000 Tibetans live in Nepal. Most were born there, yet the government of Nepal refuses, according to Human Rights Watch, to issue at least half of them official identification.

Pakistan set to win multiple benefits from China’s regional leadership
Global Times, April 13
Ahmad Rashid Malik paints a rosy picture of future Pakistan-China relations. Pakistan enthusiastically participates in all regional cooperation initiatives led by China whether they are strategically important or economically crucial, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA). Equated by some with the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the latest BFA just concluded in South China’s Hainan Province.  The Chinese private sector has been taking a keen interest in investment in Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor program driven by leaders on both sides. So far $52 billion have been pledged for many of these infrastructural projects, with $32 billion for energy alone in the next five years. If this happens, Pakistan will become one of the largest recipients of Chinese outbound investment. With the fast rising optimistic outlook of the Pakistani economy in the past 10 months, the future of Sino-Pakistani economic relations appears quite bright. 

India-China border dispute – Coping with asymmetry
Business Standard, April 13
Shyam Saran writes that China is likely to show restraint in dealing with India, including on the border issue, the more diversified and stronger India’s relations are with other countries. China was more amenable and sensitive to India’s interests in 2005 because of India’s growing relationship with the US, Japan and the countries of South East Asia. The fewer options India is seen to have in its external relations, the more likely Chinese pressures on it will increase. This will be particularly relevant if the capability gap between the two countries continues to widen. Alternatively, if the forthcoming elections throw up a political leadership that enables India to resume accelerated economic growth and pursue a more coherent foreign policy, the prospects for India-China relations will improve. Much will be determined by what the Indian electorate delivers in terms of a new political dispensation later this year.

Combating terrorism in Central Asia: What will US, China, India and Pakistan do?
DNA India, April 13
Jaideep Prabhu writes that the notion that an arrival of Islamist terrorism in Central Asia will alter regional geopolitics is premised upon two questionable assumptions: 1.) that Islamism is a greater threat than mutual rivalries; and 2.) that the Islamism is genuine and not a cover for an undercurrent of ethnic grievances indulged only by Islamist groups. China has long claimed the unrest in Xinjiang province to have an Islamist dimension with ties to cells in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan, but there have been few takers for these accusations. Several of the more infamous incidents – the Ürümqi bus bombing in 1997, the Aksu bombing in 2010, and the Hotan and Kashgar attacks in 2011 were all carried out by Uighurs, a persecuted ethnic minority in north-western China. To gain sympathy for its fight, China may reach out to its neighbours. India, long a target of Islamic militancy, is a natural partner in the war against Islamism in Central Asia. Furthermore, like Beijing, India has high hopes for energy investments in the region and would not like to see an increase of militancy there. However, any partnership with India is likely to be more on paper than on the ground; India has steadfastly refused to take up a greater role in Afghan security despite its own assets in the country repeatedly coming under attack.

Silk Route: The way to prosperity for India, China and the Entire Asia
The Economic Times, April 14
Ambassador Wei Wei highlights that President Xi Jinping of China brings the spirit of the ancient Silk Road up to date by calling for the joint development of an economic belt along the Silk Road and a Maritime Silk Road of the 21st century. These two initiatives of overland and maritime Silk Roads aim to seize the opportunity of further opening up of China, especially its western side, and to work with neighbouring countries to speed up the development of Asia. The “Belt” and “Road” initiatives are inclusive because they are a banner of unity among nations and a commitment to cooperation. They will contribute to greater connectivity and complementarity among East Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and help to develop and improve our supply chain, industrial chain and value chain. It will, thus, bring pan-Asian and Eurasian regional cooperation to a new level.

India- China Relations: Next Steps
Eurasia, April 14
Bhaskar Roy highlights thatsometime during the fall this year Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit India as part of the agreed high level bilateral exchange. Xi, who also leads the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the country’s military as chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), would be more powerful than his two predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin. Xi Jinping has recently unveiled his “thoughts on national defence” which include “not an inch of Chinese territory” will be given up, and if China fights a war it will be determined to win it.

New China-India era no shoo-in under Modi
Asia Times, April 14
Santosh Pai writes about the hopes that he says are rising, that by the time results are finally announced on May 16, India’s gargantuan six-week election process will have set the stage for a new era in its ties with China. Despite being touted as this century’s most crucial bilateral relationship, the India-China dynamic has underwhelmed so far. Most of the potential for transformation lies in the realm of trade and investment, with companies on each side eyeing the large market on the other side of the Himalayas. Indian imports from China have grown faster than Indian exports to China, resulting in a embarrassing trade imbalance which New Delhi finds difficult to control. Chinese manufacturers also have gained significant a market share in India’s power and telecom sectors. At the same time, Chinese investment in India remains far lower than in many other Asian countries. Most Chinese companies consider the Indian regulatory regime opaque at best – and hostile at worst – despite the Indian government’s welcoming noises.

Stalemate between US and India
Global Times, April 15
Relations between the world’s two largest democracies have been at a stalemate for some time. Kanwal Sibal, former chief of the Indian Foreign Service, feels the need for change. US Ambassador Nancy Powell has decided to return without completing her term and there is widespread belief that her resignation is linked to the current diplomatic stalemate between the US and India. In any case, her continuation had become problematic as bilateral relations between the two countries became strained during her tenure on account of the role played by the US Embassy in New Delhi and State Department in Washington in the diplomatic row over the Khobragade episode. Mohan Guruswamy at the Forum of Strategic Initiatives says that while the US is quite “insular,” they often view better off Asians as a “threat to their dominant position.” In his view, their prejudices are reflected in their government’s attitude towards China and India. “Their interest in India is to have a countervailing power in Asia lined up with them against China. After expending a lot of energy on wooing India as an ally, they have only now realized that India is not about to become anybody’s ally or enemy to suit the needs of a third country. Strategic autonomy and nonalignment are part of India’s DNA,” Guruswamy told the Global Times.

India in the Eurasian Cauldron
Daily Sabah, April 16
Baha Erbaş writes that the struggle of powers in the Asia-Pacific will be decisive in determining the future global position of the U.S. and China and where the center of conflict in the 21st century will take place. Washington, anxiously watching while the gravity of power tilts from the West towards the East, is also struggling to become the power that gives direction to this historical transformation. This process creates a deep suspicion about the future of the formation of traditional alliances. The same situation forces a revision in the balance of great powers. In the end, what the U.S. can provide to India can’t be given by either Russia or China to India. In the case of India, America’s biggest advantage in this chess game is its promising economic and technological relations with India, especially in nanotechnology, software, the defence industry and space and missile technologies. There is no alternative to the U.S. for India.

Putin has more admirers than the west might think
The Guardian, April 17
It turns out that Vladimir Putin has more admirers around the world for someone using a neo-Soviet combination of violence and the big lie to dismember a neighbouring sovereign state, contends a rather surprised Timothy Garton Ash. Russia’s strongman garners tacit support, and even some quiet plaudits, from some of the world’s most important emerging powers, starting with China and India. Chinese leaders such as Xi Jinping, who grew up under Chairman Mao, still instinctively warmed to the idea of another non-western leader standing up to the capitalist and imperialist west. “Xi likes Putin’s Russia,” said one well-informed observer. Chinese media commentary has become more cautious since Putin moved on from Crimea to stirring the pot in eastern Ukraine. China’s nationalist paper Global Times, which last month spoke of “Crimea’s return to Russia”, now warns: “Ukraine’s eastern region is different from the Crimea. Secession of the region from Ukraine strikes a direct blow to territorial integrity guaranteed by international law.” India’s postcolonial obsession with sovereignty, and resentment of any hint of western liberal imperialism, plays out – rather illogically – in support for a country that dramatically violated its neighbour’s sovereignty.

Border issue may still poison Sino-Indian ties
Global Times, April 17
Wu Zhaoli writes analyses the impact of the Henderson Brooks Report. Though no longer confidential, it is still classified top secret by New Delhi. In the past, the Congress party once covered up the reality about the border contention with China, distorted the history and misled the general public, in a bid to safeguard its position as the ruling party as well as the moral and just image of India in the international community. Now the government is still attempting to conceal the contents of the report, citing its contents “are not only extremely sensitive but are of current operational value.” Indeed, the Sino-Indian border dispute is not only a key issue in their bilateral relations, but also an extremely sensitive topic in India’s political circle. Future China-India ties will be fraught with both opportunities and challenges. China-India relations are bound to experience challenges in the future given public understanding of the border dispute, limited people-to-people exchanges, convergence and collision of strategic interests between the two countries, and the changing regional and international tapestry. 

India’s Youth Challenge
The New York Times, April 17
Of the estimated 814 million citizens eligible to vote in India’s general elections that began on April 7, some 150 million are first-time voters between the ages of 18 and 23. How they vote may well determine the results, scheduled to be announced May 16. But, askes The Editorial Board: will a new government be able to fulfil the aspirations of India’s young citizens? India is experiencing a youth bulge. Nearly two-thirds of Indians are under 35; half are under 25. By 2020, India will be the youngest country in the world, with a median age of 29 years, compared with a median age of 37 years in China at that point. India’s large youth population, often called a “demographic dividend,” could potentially make India the biggest consumer market and the biggest labour force in the world. The new government will need to act quickly to demonstrate that it can do better than its predecessors. It will have to jump-start the faltering economy, provide access to affordable, improved education for boys and girls in all regions and help the private sector create tens, if not hundreds, of millions of decent-paying jobs. Unless it can do that, India’s youthful demographic dividend could turn into a demographic liability.

India and China: Are they mismatched?
The Daily Star, April 20
Ashfaqur Rahman wonders if there are areas where China and India could effectively cooperate. One area of cooperation is the global redistribution of qualified manpower. The international competition for Research and Development (R&D) resources are global. India and China are producing hundreds and thousands of engineers, doctors and scientists each year. They are taking up jobs in the United States and Europe. Yet if these scientists and the R&D people remained in their own countries they would enrich their knowledge base further. The West would soon be unable to compete and would also be priced out of the market. The next area of cooperation between India and China can be energy. Both the countries have a voracious appetite for oil. China is soaking up oil from African countries, even from violence ridden Sudan. So is India from other African countries. Both are looking at almost the same set of countries in the world for their carbon needs. But this is harmful to both. Soon, the Middle Eastern countries and Russia, who are the suppliers of this source of energy, may price them out of the market. India and China need to look at their common resource base, the Himalayas, where they can utilise the hydro-electric sources of energy for their needs.

Focusing America’s Attention on Asia
The New York Times, April 20
With the slowdown in Pentagon spending, and dysfunction in Congress, will the United States really put 60 percent of its defense assets in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020, as promised? Can Mr. Obama afford to invest more time in Asia when he is bogged down with crises in Ukraine and Syria? Can the United States be counted on to defend its allies if China becomes a real threat? What does Mr. Obama’s idea to “rebalance” America’s Asia policy, announced in 2011, really mean? Asia is a major engine of world economic growth, and rising tensions — between Japan and China, Japan and South Korea, China and some of the smaller maritime countries — could put that at risk. A volatile and chaotic world will continue to demand America’s attention, but Asia is the future and warrants being a top priority.

Asia’s giants under new management
Project Syndicate, April 21
Kishore Mahbubani looks at the new leadership that is or may emerge in China, India and Indonesia in the coming few months and their global impact. With all three undergoing significant political transitions – whether electing a new leader or experiencing a recently installed leader’s first key decisions – this is a decisive moment in shaping the global economy’s future. If Narendra Modi and Joko “Jokowi” Widodo win the upcoming elections in India and Indonesia, respectively, they will join Chinese President Xi Jinping in spurring regional economic growth – likely causing Asia’s rise to global economic preeminence to occur faster than the world ever imagined.

Journal Articles and Publications

China-India: Pathways of Economic and Social Development
Oxford University Press, 2014
Edited by Delia Davin and Barbara Harriss-White, this new book compares the different paths of economic development in China and India in recent years, and examines their social consequences. Probing behind the obvious contrasts, it discloses important ways in which the two countries are alike in facing the problems produced in large, formerly agrarian societies by rapid economic development and interaction with the global economy. This book’s approach is unusual in that the chapters are less concerned with ‘lags’ and ‘competition’, on which most comparative writing on China and India focuses, and more concerned with the structure of the differences between their trajectories.

A Study of India’s Trade Relations with China in WTO Era
International Journal of Asian Business and Information Management, 2014
Surendar Singh and R.C. Mishra examine India’s trade relations with China in the WTO era. China’s joining of WTO in 2001 has completely changed its economic structure and its entry in WTO proved to be a landmark event in the global economy. As a result, China’s trade relations with the world have improved significantly particularly with India. Both, India and China are the fastest growing economies in the world since they have grown at rate of 8% and 10% GDP respectively. The total trade between India and China was reached to $60 billion in 2010. However, the major change in the trade relations between India and China has come after China’s joining of WTO in 2001. In the above background, this paper is divided into three parts. The first part of the paper examines the direction of foreign trade of China after becoming a member of WTO and, the second part analyses India’s trade relations with China (Pre and Post China’s joining of WTO). The final section of the paper delineates the major constraints between India and China for improving trade relations.

Worldviews of Aspiring Powers: Domestic Foreign Policy Debates in China, India, Iran, Japan and Russia
Oxford University Press, May 2014
Edited by Henry Nau and Deepa Ollapally, Worldviews of Aspiring Powers provides a serious study of the domestic foreign policy debates in five world powers who have gained more influence as the US’s has waned: China, Japan, India, Russia and Iran. Featuring a leading regional scholar for each essay, each essay identifies the most important domestic schools of thought–nationalists, realists, globalists, idealists/exceptionalists–and connects them to the historical and institutional sources that fuel each nation’s foreign policy experience. While scholars have applied this approach to US foreign policy, this book is the first to track the competing schools of foreign policy thought within five of the world’s most important rising powers. Concise and systematic, Worldviews of Aspiring Powers will serve as both an essential resource for foreign policy scholars trying to understand international power transitions and as a text for courses that focus on the same.                                                              

Compressed capitalism and development: Primitive accumulation, petty commodity production, and capitalist maturity in India and China
Critical Asian Studies, 2014
The global capitalist system is at a particular historical juncture with a dilution of the capitalist core away from Western (and Japanese) centers of accumulation to China and India, among other countries. What is the nature of capitalism in these countries? Are China and India going along the same development trajectories that advanced capitalist countries followed earlier? Is their accumulation model the same as that of the OECD economies or is accumulation different under late capitalism? The author argues that capitalism in India and China is “compressed,” meaning that the phases of capitalism do not follow one another in sequential order. Instead, some phases, such as primitive accumulation, may be delayed or be experienced at the same time as advanced accumulation under the corporate sector, thereby producing a mode of development that does not generate widespread employment. The author contends that capitalism in India and China is compressed and he demonstrates empirically that primitive accumulation, petty commodity producing sectors, and mature capitalism in late-industrializing countries reinforce each other, creating precarious forms of employment in the process.

The Paradox of China in the Asia-Pacific-Pacific Theatre
Griffith Asia Quarterly, 2014
Srikanth Kondapalli writes that in the Asia-Pacific region, China has emerged as the largest performer in many critical indices second only to the United States. Today China has become the second largest economy in the world, displacing Japan in 2010. Its gross domestic product of over $10 trillion is next only to the United States GDP of about $17 trillion. China also is next only to the US in terms of defence budget allocation and in 2014, China stated that it will spend an officially estimated figure of $132 billion. China is also the largest exporting country, displacing Germany in this role a few years ago. However, even though China has a mutually beneficial relationship with many Asia-Pacific countries, it is also involved in sovereignty and territorial disputes with Japan on Senkaku Islands, with Vietnam, Philippines and others on South China Sea islands, with India on the borders and the like. China claims Taiwan as well. As a part of its increasing profile in the Asia-Pacific region, it had unveiled several plans recently, including the ‘two-ocean strategy’, viz., the Pacific and the Indian Oceans. As the US President Obama has announced, in his first term, a ‘rebalancing’ strategy towards the Asia-Pacific region, China’s role in the Asia-Pacific is being watched carefully by the international community. Also, the Trans-Pacific Partnership idea of the United States is being weighed cautiously by China for the economic opportunities this provides.