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What Taiwan's presidential election could mean for ties with Beijing

10 Jan 2016

Taiwan-China

Taiwan’s presidential and Legislative Yuan elections will be held this Saturday. Most opinion polls indicate a double-digit lead for Ms Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) over her rivals Eric Chu of the Kuomintang (KMT) and James Soong of the People First Party (PFP).

A poll conducted by the Taiwan Cross Strait Policy Association, for example, found that Ms Tsai had the support of 45.2 per cent of those polled as compared with Mr Chu’s 16.3 per cent. The Kuomintang’s own survey found Ms Tsai in the lead with 39.2 per cent, ahead of Mr Chu’s 31.2 per cent.

One recent prediction is that Ms Tsai will get nine million votes and Mr Chu six million, a difference of three million votes out of a total of 15 million eligible voters.


Ker Sin Tze is an Adjunct Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. This article was first published in The Straits Times on 11 January 2015.

Ker Sin Tze

Ker Sin Tze

Adjunct Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore