This talk pushes forward the debate about ‘a new cold war’ that has been going since 2014. Specifically, it builds Prof Buzan’s 2024 article in International Politics, 61:2, and a paper with Rita Floyd at ISA 2026.
Buzan will start by comparing historical and theoretical approaches to thinking about cold war and favour the latter. He will set out a chronology based on: First Cold War 1947-89, Cold Peace 1990-2014, Second Cold War 2014-24, and Third Cold War 2025, and look briefly at the Second Cold War as both a continuation of, and departure from the First, separated by a quarter century of cold peace. He will argue that while the condition of cold war is continuous between the Second and Third, the geopolitical structure, both in terms of ideology and alignment, is radically different. The big move is the revolutionary transformation of the US under Trump 2.0 into a far-right power and global rogue state. This move has destroyed the foundations of trust and friendship on which the West rested. The West which composed one side in the First and Second Cold Wars, is no longer a player in the Third. This change throws Europe, and Japan, into an existential crisis. Either they quickly ramp up their defence capabilities to be able to play as plausible great powers, or they become the spoils for other great powers. A big question is what this means for how humankind is going to face the collective threat of climate change.