The global shift toward decarbonization and digitalization, catalyzed by the Paris Agreement and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, have produced a race for critical minerals and their supply chains, weaponized interdependence, and fueled geoeconomic contention. As major powers compete to secure critical minerals and dominate green technologies and AI, new global power dynamics are reshaping climate policy, economic strategy, and international relations. At the heart of this geopolitical reordering lies a fierce U.S.–China rivalry.
While the United States has deprioritized its green transition, ramping up fossil fuel production to power its tech and AI ambitions, China is on course to become the world’s first "electric superpower"—commanding the global EV and renewable energy markets while excelling in the AI and technology sectors.
As globalization unravels, tariff and non-tariff barriers are multiplying, supply chains are becoming securitized, and defense budgets are rising. Countries across the world are being drawn into a confrontation many would prefer to avoid, increasingly pressured to choose sides.
The scramble for access to critical minerals began with rare earths. However, China’s competitors failed to appreciate the strategic foresight behind Beijing’s long-term investment in the sectors of the future, clinging instead to the belief that globalization and market efficiency would ensure uninterrupted supply. Yet these vital materials need not become a new front for conflict or justify neo-colonial approaches to resource extraction. They also present an opportunity for global cooperation—especially with mineral-rich countries in the developing world—offering the potential for a more inclusive and equitable economic transformation.
Which direction will the tide take? What options lie ahead for the allies, partners, and competitors of the U.S. and China? What kind of global power relations will define the coming years? In this talk, Kalantzakos explores how critical minerals have moved to the epicenter of hypercompetition—and considers possible pathways forward.