Public Lecture

US-China Trade at a Crossroads: with Reflections on the Outlook for China's Growth

In this lecture, we document the evolution of US-China trade, with an emphasis on the years since China’s accession to the WTO in 2001. We will argue that China’s exports have shown remarkable resilience in the manner in which these have evolved and adapted. This has helped China to weather (so far) the significant headwinds faced from weakening external demand in the mid-2010s, trade policy barriers since 2018, and the global pandemic in 2020. However, this by no means guarantees that China’s external arm will remain a robust source of economic growth moving forward, as new concerns have emerged. The recent surge in China’s exports has triggered worries domestically about industrial over-capacity, while raising the prospects of a protectionist and geoeconomic backlash abroad. China’s trade thus stands at a crossroads, with a key choice confronting its policymakers: whether to continue doubling down on its external growth engine or to enact more concerted measures to rebalance growth toward domestic consumption.

Seminar Room 3-2
Block B, Level 3
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
469 Bukit Timah Road
Singapore 259756
Fri 6 November 2026
12:15 PM - 01:30 PM

Prof Davin Chor

Prof Davin Chor

Michael G. Fisch 1983 Professor and Globalization Chair, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth

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Prof Danny Quah

Prof Danny Quah

Director of the Asia Competitiveness Institute and Li Ka Shing Professor in Economics, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

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