Public policy has always confronted future uncertainties. Projecting likely futures has been viewed as a best practice for assessing proposed plans even though few would expect exactly those futures to occur. But in an era of deep uncertainties in which prior rules of thumb are no longer believed likely to hold true in years to come, sufficient diligence for policy analysis demands a different standard. Companies using data analytics and scenario planning among other methods for strategic planning would also be required to develop strategies for various types of crisis situations and this has become more complex.
In the economic space, numerous companies are being impacted by the social-distancing measures and unable to optimise operations; and most are resorting to coping mechanisms just to survive. Companies are making decisions with incomplete information in search of better outcomes and to avoid worse outcomes. Similarly, the volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous context in which the world was functioning had already forced policymakers to function in a mode of decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). While expectations are high that economic activities would return to business as usual as soon as possible after the Circuit Breaker, the co-chair of the government’s task force on COVID-19, Minister for National Development Lawrence Wong has highlighted several times that the situation is rapidly evolving and that the government has to apply and ease the brakes on social distancing as and when required to control the level of infection until at least the end of the year. This “start and stop approach” to varying levels adds to the complexity to strategic and policy planning.
While radical uncertainty has increased complexities for corporate planning, there are companies and experts that have dealt with uncertainties as part and parcel of their strategic planning. Innovative approaches from the corporate and academic spheres may provide the additional means to enable policy processes to be better suited to deep uncertainty and dynamic change. And the recognition by policymakers that there exist (and that they should demand) new means for analysis better suited to the emerging needs of policy would, in turn, allow more rapid diffusion of techniques into realms not yet exposed to means for decision making under deep uncertainty.
The interaction between analysts and policymakers requires contact between two distinct cultures. DMDU applications collectively present a body of theory and practice with the potential for providing a common vocabulary to the work of both analysts and of those charged with policy design and implementation during uncertain times. What could academia and the corporate world contribute towards sense making and strategic planning in a world of radical uncertainties?
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