Guest Column
China-India Energy Cooperation:
A Perspective of Geo-politics and Geo-economics
by Dai Yonghong
In the process of their rise as major powers, China and India have experienced rapid economic development, with an average annual growth rate at 10 percent and 8 percent respectively over the past ten years. To sustain such a growth, their demand for energy resources will undoubtedly continue to increase. However, the stark reality is that domestic oil and gas reserves and production in China and India are very limited. At present, China’s annual domestic oil production has already reached a saturation point, with peak production estimated between 2010 and 2020. Natural gas production has entered a period of swift development, and is estimated to achieve peak production by the year of 2020. However, given the rapid growth in consumption of oil and natural gas, their indigenous resources are woefully inadequate. China and India are therefore seeking overseas energy supplies as one of the most important strategies to ensure energy security. It is estimated that by 2020, China’s dependence on foreign oil and natural gas will reach 76% and 40% respectively. Given India’s widening gap in demand and indigenous supply of oil and gas resources, its dependence on foreign oil has reached 70%, and Indian authorities have forecasted that this will reach 90% by 2030.
Global energy geopolitics is characterized by an “energy arc” ranging from the Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea, through Siberia and the Arctic Ocean to the Russian Far East, along with the United States, Alaska and Canada. This region possesses 80% of the world’s oil and gas resources. With the world’s fastest growing economy and half its population, Asian countries depend heavily on the energy supply from this region. Historically, the Indian Ocean was used by European and American colonial powers to further their conquests in Asia and East Africa. Today, this region has emerged as an “energy portal” that is being used as a transit of energy resources from the Persian Gulf.
One of the major challenges facing China’s energy security is ensuring the safety of energy transport corridors against potential geopolitical threats. China is able to use the direct land route to only import oil and gas from Russia and Kazakhstan, while the rest of its resource imports are dependent on sea routes. Over 85 percent of China’s imported oil has to pass through the Indian Ocean, the Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea – regions which are increasingly dangerous and politically volatile. In recent years, the United States has been building “chains” to contain China in East Asia, along Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines, while continuing to have a strong presence in South and Central Asia due to its War in Afghanistan. It has also set up a military port in Singapore to control the Straits of Malacca arteries. India seeks to “effectively control” the Indian Ocean, and has even attempted to extend its control into the South China Sea. Japan is gradually expanding its military reach to the Straits of Malacca. In addition, the shipping routes through the Strait of Malacca have increasingly been confronting piracy threats. All of these directly threaten the security of China’s energy imports. With China’s Navy being unable to ensure the safety of offshore energy lines, placing excessive reliance on a single maritime transport routes has increased the risks of China’s energy imports.
India’s geographical location is very important from a geopolitical standpoint. It borders Pakistan and the northern part of the Himalayas to its northwest, China, Nepal, Sikkim and Bhutan to its northeast, Myanmar and Bangladesh in the east, while Sri Lanka and the Maldives are just to the south in the Indian Ocean, which is home to the sea routes connecting Asia, Africa, Europe and Oceania. Therefore, the prominent American navel strategist Alfred T. Mahan stated: “Whoever controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia. This Ocean is the key to the seven seas in the twenty-first century, the destiny of the world will be decided in these waters.” India imports 65 percent of its oil from the Persian Gulf, and the rest from Russia, Central Asia and other areas. Central Asia however is set to play a more important role in India energy security in the future. India is therefore very concerned about the changes in the geopolitical and security landscape in Central Asia. Pakistan and Afghanistan are important to India’s strategy towards this region, due largely to their geographic location, which connects India to Iran and Central Asia.
While India could potentially avail of energy-rich Central Asia, turbulent India-Pakistan relations and an unstable Afghanistan are the main obstacles to achieving this strategic objective. India is therefore focused particularly on the Persian Gulf for its energy requirements due to the relative ease of transport through the Indian Ocean. About 80 percent of India’s domestic oil consumption is dependent upon safe transit through the India Ocean. India is therefore increasingly concerned with the geostrategic ability of its own Navy in ensuring maritime security, as well as in cooperating with other major powers in maintaining maritime security in the Indian Ocean.
China’s and India’s decision to cooperate or compete with each other to satisfy their demand for energy will impact economic development as well as peace and stability in the Asian region. The geographical advantages of China and India bode well for energy cooperation. China-India energy cooperation is conducive to India’s energy security. India has to depend on an unfriendly Pakistan to transport imported energy by the land route. On the other hand, the cooperative relations between China and Pakistan can potentially guarantee the India’s energy security. With enhanced interdependence among the three countries, China and India could change the “zero-sum game” of overseas energy strategy and realise that greater energy cooperation is essential to make full use of each other’s geographical advantages.
Dai Yonghong is Professor at the Institute of South Asia Studies, Director of the Center for Myanmar Studies, Sichuan University, China and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Institute of Security and Development Policy, Sweden.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.
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News Reports
Bilateral Relations
India, China troops hold meet along border
The Times of India, May 1
Weeks ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China, Indian and Chinese troops held the third meeting in a fortnight, in Ladakh sector of Jammu & Kashmir and batted for maintaining peace and tranquility along the border. “A ceremonial Border Personnel Meeting (BPM) was held on Friday at the Chinese side in Chushul sector in eastern Ladakh (in Jammu & Kashmir),” public relation officer (PRO), Jammu, Col SD Goswami said. The delegations were led by Brigadier JKS Virk from the Indian side and senior Colonel Fanjun from the Chinese side.
India lags behind China in border infrastructure, panel says
The Times of India, May 2
India continues to lag far behind China in its plans to construct border military infrastructure for swifter mobility of troops and weapons, which Manohar Parrikar will realize during his first visit to the northeast as defence minister. Accompanied by Army chief General Dalbir Singh Suhag and others, Parrikar on Saturday is also slated to visit Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, which much like eastern Ladakh continues to be a major flashpoint between India and China. Also on the cards is a visit to the Bum La pass located on the border.
外媒：莫迪访华，旨在平衡印中贸易逆差
(Modi’s visit to China aims at repairing trade imbalance)
Xinhua （新华社）， May 5
尽管中印两国边境争端持续，印度总理纳兰德拉·莫迪下周将出访中国，旨在平衡与中国的贸易逆差。报道称，自去年印度大选莫迪获胜后，此次中国之行将是他作为印度领导人首次访华。专家称，莫迪必须通过寻求更多的占有中国市场，把今年中印双边年度贸易额目标定在1000亿美元，以消除贸易逆差。对于莫迪即将展开的中国之旅，部分微博网友也表达了期待。网友“诚真真诚”在莫迪的微博下评论说：“中印都是大国，应当和平相处，减少分歧，化解矛盾，共创美好未来。” 网友“寻梦＿征途”写道：“中印两个人口大国和发展中大国应该背靠背，才能共进退。如果两国携手，不仅是亚洲，也会给世界带来和平安宁。”
Modi scores big hit with micro blog in run-up to visit
China Daily, May 5
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attracted thousands of Internet users on Monday by opening an account on one of China’s most popular social media platforms ahead of a visit to the country this month. Using the Twitter-like weibo.com, Modi posted at 12.28 pm, “Hello China! Looking forward to interacting with Chinese friends through Weibo.” The post was immediately forwarded more than 4,700 times and attracted more than 7,800 comments within three hours. Among these, some welcomed Modi’s “positive gesture”, while many others raised issues that have posed obstacles to ties between the two countries for decades.
China expects Indian PM’s visit to build stronger partnership
Xinhua, May 6
China hoped Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to the country would build trust, boost practical collaboration and promote the strategic partnership. “We are ready to work with India, through Modi’s visit, to enhance strategic trust, deepen practical cooperation and people-to-people exchanges, increase communication and coordination on major international and regional issues and make progress on building strategic partnership of cooperation oriented to peace and prosperity,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said at a daily press briefing.
Indian, Chinese militaries agree to expand cooperation: Government
The Economic Times, May 7
Indian and Chinese militaries have agreed on the need to expand cooperation and identify new avenues of engagement, government said on Thursday. In a written reply in Rajya Sabha, Minister of State for External Affairs Gen V K Singh (Retd) said the 7th Annual Defence and Security dialogue between the two countries was held in Beijing from April 9-11.”The two sides noted that the leadership of two countries had recognised the maintenance of peace and tranquillity on the borders as an important guarantor for the development and growth of bilateral relationship between both countries,” he said.The Minister said that both sides agreed on the need to expand military cooperation and for identifying new avenues of engagement.
China proposes joint mining of Indian Ocean with India
The Economic Times, May 7
Ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit here next week, China has said it is “eager to cooperate” with India on deep seabed mining in the Indian Ocean where its deep diving vessel reported to have discovered large deposits of precious metals like gold and silver. “With quickening oceanic development and increasing mineral exploration in the Indian Ocean, China is eager to cooperate with India on deep seabed mining,” the China Daily quoted China Ocean Mineral Resource R&D Association as saying.
How Chinese hackers snooped on Indian defence agencies for over 10 years
The Economic Times, May 7
A Singapore based firm has uncovered a large scale cyber espionage network that is says is linked to the Chinese government. The network has been active for 10 years in the region and targets India in particular by infecting computer systems of key, selected individuals and organisations. Terming it the APT30, Singapore firm FireEye says that the infection is specially targeted at Indian military, aerospace and maritime sector.
外交部:中方对莫迪的积极表态表示赞赏
(Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China appreciates Modi’s Positive Attitude)
Xinhua, May 8
对印度总理莫迪近日接受采访时积极评价中印关系，外交部发言人华春莹8日在例行记者会上表示，中方对莫迪总理的积极表态表示赞赏。有记者问，印度总理莫迪近日接受美国《时代》周刊采访时积极评价中印关系，认为近几十年来中印关系表现非常成熟。中方对此有何评论？华春莹表示，中方注意到有关报道，对莫迪总理的积极表态表示赞赏。这充分体现了两国领导人对中印关系的广泛共识。“当前中印关系发展面临重要机遇。中方愿同印方一道，以莫迪总理访华为契机，进一步巩固两国关系的良好发展势头，推动中印关系不断迈上新台阶。”华春莹说。
Modi navigates social media clash ahead of China trip
Financial Times, May 10
Narendra Modi, who has the third-biggest number of Twitter followers among world leaders after President Obama and Pope Francis, prides himself on his political skills and mastery of social media — but he seems to have got more than he bargained for when he ventured online in China ahead of his first official visit to the country this week as Indian prime minister. Most responses from Chinese netizens to his sortie on the Twitter-like Weibo site were critical, derogatory or even racist, and most referred to a territorial dispute between the two countries over the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which China calls “South Tibet”.
China’s military budget over 3 times that of India: Pentagon
The Economic Times, May 10
China has significantly increased its defence budget which is now more than three times that of India, the Pentagon has said. China’s official defence budget last year was $136.3 billion while that of India was $38.2 billion, the Pentagon said in its annual report to the Congress based on its assessment of military and security developments involving the Communist giant. China has significantly increased its defence budget over the past several decades and now has reached a position to pose threat to the American national security interest in the region, the report said.
India-China to Jointly Make a Film on Chinese Monk Xuan Zang
Outlook, May 10
India-China will sign an agreement to jointly produce a mega film on the life and times of famous Chinese Buddhist Monk Xuan Zang’s 17-year-long journey to India in sixth century during the forthcoming visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Stated to be a big budget film with top star cast, the movie will be a joint production between state-run China Film Group and India’s Eros.
India-China friendship will have on impact other nations, says Dalai Lama
IBN Live, May 10
If Indo-Chinese friendship is based on mutual trust, it will be a welcome step as this will have impact not only on relations between India and China but also on many other countries including Tibet,” he said while replying to a question after inaugurating a mobile portal launched by a Kangra business house. Earlier, addressing the gathering, the Dalai Lama said that compassion makes a man more humane and can help check spread of violence and wars. He said knowledge gathered from various sources could help an individual have better understanding thus, make him wiser.
Indian rail projects outweigh rivalry before Modi visit to China
Reuters, May 11
Beijing has been pushing India to accelerate work on a multi-billion dollar rail link from New Delhi to Chennai ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China this week, as the Asian giants put economic ties before regional rivalries.he two sides have also agreed to speed up implementation of a shorter high-speed rail corridor from Chennai to Bengaluru, as China seeks to cash in on Modi’s vision of modernising a creaking train system that 25 million people use daily. Such cooperation could help ease tensions between the neighbours caused by a Himalayan border dispute and Chinese naval forays into the Indian Ocean as well as India’s strategic tie-ups with Japan and the United States.
India a driver behind China’s nuclear modernisation, says Pentagon report
The Indian Express, May 11
India’s nuclear force is an additional driver behind China’s nuclear force modernisation, a report by the US Department of Defence has said. The Pentagon report, titled Military and Security developments involving People’s Republic of China, was presented to the US Congress on May 8. It has said China is likely to continue investing considerable resources to maintain a limited, but survivable, nuclear force to ensure that the PLA can deliver a damaging responsive nuclear strike despite its No First Use policy. The report comes just before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China on May 14.
China hits out at Pentagon report
The Times of India, May 11
China today slammed a Pentagon report on its military development and security, calling on the US to have “an objective and rational understanding” of China’s military strength. “We urge the US to abandon its Cold War mindset, take off its coloured glasses, and have an objective and rational understanding of China’s military development,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said, referring to the report released on Saturday by the US Department of Defence.
India’s Modi Heads to China Amid Two Countries’ Growing Geopolitical Rivalry
The Wall Street Journal, May 12
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first official visit to China this week comes as the two countries have substantially ratcheted up their geopolitical competition—a reflection, in part, of Mr. Modi’s more assertive policy toward Beijing. Both sides say they will try to bolster economic cooperation during the three-day visit that begins Thursday. Mr. Modi will meet top Chinese officials and business leaders in Beijing, Shanghai and Xian as he attempts to attract more investment for Indian manufacturing and infrastructure and forge a closer bond with President Xi Jinping.
News Reports
China and India in the Regions
Nepal relief efforts heighten India-China’s strategic rivalry
India Today, May 6
National and international media reports said the strategic rivalry between India and China over addressing Nepal quake has heightened and both Asian nations are gearing up their hard and soft power clout in Nepal. Six Indian choppers are based in Pokhara while seven are stationed in Kathmandu and dropping relief material according to the need, said the Nepal Army. Though the US has provided eight choppers for relief distribution, four of them are Osprey machines used by the US Marine which cannot fly at high altitude making it difficult to drop relief materials, said a Nepal Army official. Three Chinese MI-17s are also engaged in relief distribution in the northern belt of Nepal in the districts of Sindhupalchok, Nuwakot and Rasuwa adjoining the border with China.
China says had good cooperation with India in Nepal quake
Reuters, May 7
China and India cooperated well on relief efforts after the earthquake in Nepal, a senior diplomat was quoted as saying on Thursday, dismissing the idea that China was trying to compete for influence with its work. Nepal is sandwiched between India and China, who themselves have a festering border dispute. The two Asian giants have used aid and investment to court Kathmandu for years. China is also a close ally of Pakistan, India’s neighbor and arch-rival. Speaking to Chinese reporters, Huang Xilian, deputy head of the Asian department at China’s Foreign Ministry, said any suggestion of trying to gain influence was unfair. “In fact, on the second day of the disaster, at the same time as we sent rescue forces, we began a communication with the Indian side, and during this process we remained in close touch with India on how to help Nepal,” he added.
Russia displays military might in WWII ‘Victory Day’ parade; Indian, Chinese troops take part
The Times of India, May 9
Russia on Saturday staged a grand military parade here to commemorate the 70th anniversary of its victory over Nazi Germany in the presence of several world leaders, including President Pranab Mukherjee, even as western powers boycotted the event due to a standoff over Ukraine. Nearly 10,000 soldiers, including an Indian Army contingent and China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), took part in the parade at the iconic Red Square here which lasted for over 90 minutes. Russian President Vladimir Putin witnessed the parade along with President Mukherjee, Chinese President Xi Jinping and UN secretary general Ben Ki-moon.
Philippines military chief vows to defend island in South China Sea
The Guardian, May 12
The Philippines’ military chief flew to an island occupied by his country in the South China Sea on Monday and vowed to defend the territory and help develop tourism and marine resources there amid disputes with China. General Gregorio Pio Catapang, accompanied by journalists and other military officials, said he visited Pag-asa island to establish that the island is part of western Palawan province and “therefore Pag-asa is a territory of the Republic of the Philippines”. The island’s international name is Thitu and in China it is called Zhongye.
Political watchers in Beijing say China’s investment in Pakistan is not aimed at countering US and Indian influence, but more about boosting China’s economic interests
Channel News Asia, May 12
Following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visit, China has firmly established itself as Pakistan’s most important partner. Political watchers in Beijing say the move is not aimed at countering US and Indian influence, but more about boosting China’s economic interests.China is set to be a powerful factor in expanding Pakistan’s economy. A US$46 billion package was announced during Xi’s visit to Pakistan, and the sum is more than twice the amount of all foreign direct investment to Pakistan since 2008. The money will go towards creating the strategic China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, including roads, railways and pipelines.Some Western diplomats say China’s move is to counter US and Indian influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Others, however, argue that the Economic Corridor is an important pillar of China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which has become a priority in Beijing’s foreign policy. Among other things, the corridor will provide China with direct access to the Indian Ocean and beyond.
News Reports
Economy and Trade
India’s manufacturing, services sectors pip China
Hindustan Times, May 8
The manufacturing and services sectors expanded at a faster pace in April than China, a survey said. The HSBC Emerging Markets Index, the composite index mapping both manufacturing and services for India, stood at 52.5, whereas for China it was 51.3, followed by Brazil (44.2) and Russia (50.8). The index measure of above 50 indicates expansion.
Investors dump Indian stocks for China, S.Korea and Taiwan
Reuters, May 8
Global investors disillusioned by Indian stocks that had been boosted by optimism over financial reforms are shifting their funds to emerging markets such as China, South Korea and Taiwan. Portfolio funds have been gripped by concerns over retrospective taxes and the slow pace of land acquisition reforms that have held up $300 billion worth of corporate investments. The sell-off has lately accelerated with investors dumping $2 billion of stocks over the past 14 sessions, depository data showed, leaving the market down 12 percent from its March highs. “We have turned our India equity view to neutral from outperform” after its increases over the past year,” Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, wrote in a research note.
Indian Stocks Gain for Second Day as Metal Makers Rally on China
Bloomberg Business, May 10
India’s benchmark stock-index advanced for a second day, led by metal producers and automakers, after China’s cut in interest rates spurred gains in Asian equities. Hindalco Industries Ltd., an aluminum and copper producer, jumped to a one-week high and Tata Steel Ltd. increased for the first time in four days. Hero MotoCorp Ltd. climbed the most in six months, while Tata Motors Ltd., owner of Jaguar Land Rover, rallied to a two-week high. State Bank of India was the best performer on the S&P BSE Sensex. A gauge of mid-sized companies rallied 2.1 percent, the most since Dec. 18.
India’s KV Kamath to head new Brics bank
Financial Times, May 10
India has named private sector banker K.V. Kamath as head of the New Development Bank, the so-called Brics bank of the big emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, according to government officials in New Delhi. The bank, one of a group of new institutions backed by China and reflecting Beijing’s increasing political and economic influence in Asia and beyond, will be based in Shanghai, while member states, starting with India, will take turns to lead it.
Tata Communications ties up with China Telecom Global
The Times of India, May 11
Tata Communications announced a video network partnership with China Telecom Global to enable and manage media content for customers in China and globally. The tie-up enables China Telecom Global to leverage its worldwide reach, along with Tata Communications’ Global Video Network to offer live sporting events in China, a company release said. The partnership will cater to a market opportunity of $2.57 billion, the release stated.
News Reports
Energy and Environment
Putin ratifies east-route gas pipeline agreement with China
Xinhua, May 3
Russian President Vladimir Putin ratified a gas supply agreement with China via the so- called Eastern route. “The agreement is aimed at strengthening the Russian-Chinese energy cooperation, and defines the main terms of the natural gas supply from Russia to China through the East-Route, including the cross-border section of the gas pipeline across the Amur River ( the Heilongjiang River in China) near Blagoveshchensk (capital of the Amur region in the Russian Far East) and China’s border city of Heihe,” an online official statement said.
Environment and development should go hand in hand, says Jairam Ramesh on China-India partnership
IBN Online, May 12
“I want to focus on a couple of issues which I think are going to be very important in this search for a partnership ground. First and foremost issue is climate change. This is a very important issue for the world, China and certainly crucial to India since our vulnerabilities to climate change are multiple,” writes Jairam Ramesh. “The whole issue of retreat of the Himalayan glacier, crucial for Tibet, is a source for all major rivers and also crucial for water security in India. India and China are at different levels of emissions. China contributes about 29 per cent to world greenhouse gases and India is about 6 per cent – that’s likely to double or increase thereabouts.”
Analyses and Commentaries
China and Pak: Little in common yet closest of allies
Hindustan Times, May 5
President Xi Jinping’s recent Islamabad visit, by unveiling agreements valued at $28 billion, shows that China has made Pakistan the central link between its dual Silk Road initiatives. While the maritime Silk Road is the meretriciously benign name for China’s “string of pearls” strategy, the overland Silk Road project has been designed to advance Chinese interests in Central Asia, the Caspian Sea basin and beyond. These initiatives are part of China’s larger strategy to break out of the East Asia mould and become a more global power. Xi has embarked on connecting China’s restive Xinjiang region with the Arabian Sea through a 3,000-kilometre overland transportation corridor to Pakistan’s Chinese-built Gwadar port. The $46-billion corridor through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) will hook up China’s maritime and overland Silk Roads and increase Pakistan’s pivotal importance for Beijing.
China’s humanitarian aid unrelenting in Nepal
Xinhua, May 8
China’s relief efforts in Nepal have been continuing two weeks after the neighboring nation was struck by an 8.1-magnitude earthquake, which killed at least 8,413 people and injured more than 17,576 others. As the quake-hit nation enters a phase of reconstruction and rehabilitation, Chinese government pledged continued relief supplies to Nepal and intensified decontamination and medical services to prevent disease. Knowing they are not fighting alone, China is coordinating with India on relief work. The Foreign Ministry pledged that China will continue to communicate with India, and urge the international community to help Nepal.
China’s growing investments in Pakistan could prove to be a headache for India
Business Today, May 8
Recent pictures of the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aircraft being escorted by eight made-in-China Pakistani JF-17 Thunder fighter jets as it entered the Pakistani airspace reflect the expanding relationship of the two countries, writes Anilesh Mahajan. The investment would go into building the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. This would include a road connecting Gwadar port in Balochistan with Kashgar in Xinjiang province of China via Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.Another reason to worry for India is that China has the rights to operate the Gwadar port, which increases Beijing’s influence in the Arabian Sea. The new road and the Gwadar port would help China boost trade with Europe, West Asia and Africa. The growing engagement between China and Pakistan may prove to be a stumbling block for India’s ambitious plans to boost ties with Afghanistan and Iran.
Chinese Smartphone Makers Try to Make Inroads in India
The New York Times, May 11
India’s smartphone sales are just a fraction of China’s. But as one of the fastest-growing smartphone markets in the world, with hundreds of millions of potential new customers, India may indicate whether a new generation of Chinese hardware companies can grow beyond their country’s borders. Many Chinese companies are trying to make their case directly to potential Indian buyers online. It is a technique pioneered by Xiaomi, which used e-commerce to overcome difficult-to-manage and expensive storefronts and distribution deals in China and now India. So-called flash sales, which offer limited batches of phones to drive up demand and build brand cachet, have rattled the current top sellers in India, the local company Micromax and the South Korean giant Samsung, according to analysts.
India and China in a multipolar world
The Hindu, May 11
Sanjaya Baru writes that the time has come for the China-India bilateral relationship to move well beyond official government-to-government relations, precisely because the bilateral relationship has become more stable, despite episodic provocation on the border by China. There are several reasons why China may not want to push India beyond a point. First, India has demonstrated its ability to tide over a variety of political and economic storms that have engulfed it from time to time, thereby establishing the resilience of the Indian state; second, despite all its weaknesses, the Indian economy has demonstrated its capacity to sustain higher rates of economic growth; third, India’s flexible diplomacy has enabled it to widen its geopolitical options; finally, China’s assertiveness in its neighbourhood has encouraged many Asian nations to take a more benign view of India’s rise.
Journal Articles
Murky waters, dangerous currents: India, Pakistan, China and the coming nuclearisation of the Indian Ocean
Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, May 1
David Brewster writes, “We are currently seeing a potentially dangerous nuclear proliferation as India, Pakistan, and perhaps China, look to deploy ship-borne nuclear weapons in the Indian Ocean. India-Pakistan nuclear rivalry is the immediate driver for these developments, but the India-China nuclear relationship is also increasingly moving into the Indian Ocean. The deployment of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons in the maritime realm could further destabilise already unstable nuclear relationships, creating a real risk of a sea-based nuclear exchange.”