China-India Brief #20

Guest Column

India-Japan ties in the face of a rising China

By Danielle Rajendram

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has just concluded a three-day official visit to New Delhi, where he was made Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day Parade. As the first time this honour has been given to a Japanese leader, Abe’s most recent visit to New Delhi marks the growing significance of Indo-Japanese ties.

Given the current tension in relations between China and Japan, the symbolism of hosting Abe sends a clear signal to Beijing. India’s Look East policy, initiated in 1991, is beginning to play an important balancing role against China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean and assertiveness along their disputed land border. India is investing substantial diplomatic energy in increasing the strategic value of Look East and is working to integrate security cooperation into its relations with its East Asian partners. In the past year, India has deliberately stepped up engagement with Vietnam, Indonesia and South Korea, particularly evident in light of South Korean President Park Geun-Hye’s visit to India earlier this month. But it is India’s relationship with Japan that will be the lynchpin of Look East.

Indo-Japan ties have gathered substantial momentum in recent years, particularly so under the leadership of Shinzo Abe who has long been a champion of closer relations. In his last term as Prime Minister from 2006 to 2007, Abe articulated his vision of a ‘broader Asia’ spanning the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and called for an Indo-Japan “strategic global partnership” in recognition of the two nations’ shared democratic values and strategic interests.

The accelerating pace of high-level interactions between India and Japan demonstrates the increased importance both countries accord the relationship. Abe’s most recent trip followed the official visit of Japanese Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko to New Delhi in December last year, as well as Prime Minister Singh’s visit to Tokyo earlier in May.

Since India and Japan entered into a strategic and global partnership in 2006, their strategic interests have steadily converged in the face an increasingly assertive China. Chinese provocations over territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and along the contested Sino-Indian land border have served only to reinforce the necessity of an enhanced Indo-Japanese partnership.

Bilateral trade between India and Japan has increased by 80% in the last 5 years to reach $18 billion, with a target of $25 billion set for this year. Japan is already India’s largest source of both foreign direct investment and aid, and the two are looking to strengthen their economic relations further. Japanese official development assistance has been crucial in the development of the Delhi Metro, and has prompted the undertaking of similar projects in Bangalore and Chennai. Japan has pledged an additional $92 billion investment in infrastructure centring on the Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor, and India is in the process of approving an increase in bilateral currency swaps between the Reserve Bank of India and the Bank of Japan from $15 billion to $50 billion.

Japan and India have also sought to give teeth to their strategic partnership. During the visit of Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera to India earlier this month, India and Japan pledged to enhance their defence cooperation through joint combat exercises, military exchanges, and cooperation on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Their shared interest in maintaining sea lines of communication and freedom of navigation has led to greater interest in augmenting cooperation in the maritime security sphere, including in anti-piracy cooperation, joint coast guard exercises and bilateral naval exercises. Japan has also offered to sell India its ShinMaywa US-2 amphibious aircraft, and the two nations are due to hold their third “2+2” Dialogue and fourth Defence Policy Dialogue later this year.

These developments have not gone unnoticed by China. Following Prime Minister Singh’s visit to Tokyo last May, Chinese state-run media published pieces accusing India of exploiting ‘the deep hostility between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands’ and warning that ‘the conflict between China and Japan should not be regarded as a “strategic” game’. More recently, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei stated that China hoped that India and Japan’s relationship would ‘be conducive to regional peace, stability and development’. In addition, China’s Ambassador to India penned two pieces in The Indian Express accusing Japan ‘trying to turn back the wheel of history’ by failing to acknowledge Japan’s militaristic past, and reminding readers that ‘Indian and Chinese soldiers together fought against Japanese aggression in India’.

Strengthening relations with Japan will be one of the Singh government’s most important foreign policy legacies. Given that Narendra Modi has established ties between Gujarat and Japan, these positive trends are likely to continue should a Modi-led BJP government win elections later this year.

Of course, challenges still exist in the relationship. Japan-India civil nuclear cooperation has stalled, and bilateral trade between the two is still far below the US$70 billion relationship India has with China. And India’s commitment to strategic autonomy is likely to constrain the development of a more formal alliance arrangement, or participation in activities perceived to be overtly targeted at China.

But the natural complementarities inherent in India and Japan’s strategic interests, and potential for growth in trade, investment and science and technology will ensure the longevity of their ties. It is for these reasons that the relationship between India and Japan is likely to be one of the defining partnerships in shaping Indo-Pacific geopolitics in the coming years.

Danielle Rajendram is a Research Associate in the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy or the National University of Singapore.

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News Reports

Bilateral relations

India invites China for border talks
The Economic Times, January 15
Hoping to prevent transgressions along the Line of Actual Control between India and China, Delhi has invited Beijing for Director General Military Operations talks as part of the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement signed during Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s trip to Beijing last October.

India focusing on infrastructure along border with China: Army
Business Standard, January 15
The Indian Army is focusing on infrastructure development along the China-India border to achieve a “reasonable position there,” specifically in Ladakh. Lieutenant General Sanjiv Chachra emphasized in statements to reporters that there is a “difference of opinion” between China and India regarding the Line of Actual Control, and it is in these areas where transgressions take place.

China trying to revive silk route by violating Kashmir border: BJP
Business Standard, January 15
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has issued a statement accusing the Delhi government of failing to curtail China’s exploitation of the ambiguity over the Line of Actual Control, thus allowing China to carve out a “silk road” through Jammu and Kashmir. BJP spokesperson Jitendra Singh cited intelligence reports on Chinese infrastructure development to connect Tibet to Xinjiang through Aksai Chin, and on troop deployment in Gilgit Baltistan.

A Tamil voice, from China
The Hindu, January 18
In an interview with the Hindu, China Radio International (CRI) presenter for Tamil programmes Zhao Jiang said that she wants “to help foster China-south India relations and promote Tamil among the Chinese residents.” CRI’s Tamil radio prorammes air for four hours a day and has listeners in several countries including India, Singapore and Canada. CRI’s Tamil department recently celebrated its golden jubilee.

India should give fitting reply to China, says General V.K. Singh
India Today, January 20
Retired general V.K. Singh indicated that he may form his own political party comprised of former soldiers. He said that China has been encroaching on Indian borders time and time again but the central government has been playing it safe by allowing China to do whatever it wants. India needs a strong active prime minister. General Singh called Bharatiya Janata Party candidate Narendra Modi a “nationalist” and said that only a nationalist can provide a strong stable government.

22 Chinese teachers to go to India for educational exchange
Xinhua, January 20
A total of 22 Chinese teachers will be sent to schools in several Indian cities such as New Delhi, Kolkata and Mumbai to teach Chinese and to improve the educational exchanges between India and China.

孙鸿志会见印度驻华大使阿肖克·库玛·坎塔
中华人民共和国国家行政工商管理总局, January 22
孙鸿志表示，国家工商总局愿与印度相关部门加强协商合作，立足职能做好各项工作，为推动中印双边关系发展创造良好条件。阿肖克·库玛·坎塔提出，印中两国同为拥有悠久历史且正处在转型时期的大国，两国双边关系发展非常重要，经贸关系是重中之重。

India, China launch year of exchanges
The Hindu, January 24
India and China have launched “a year of friendly exchanges”, with Chinese Vice-President Li Yuanchao calling on both countries to “properly handle” persisting issues such as the boundary dispute. Vice-President Li said at an event to mark the coming year of exchanges that the Chinese leadership was of the view that both sides needed to make “joint efforts to expand strategic mutual trust and properly handle issues left over from history”. In the coming 12 months, India and China have agreed to boost economic, cultural and people-to-people links.

‘India-China to pursue ambitious agenda to firm up ties’
The Economic Times, January 26
India and China are set to pursue an “ambitious agenda” utilising strategic openings and deal with the unresolved issues in a purposeful manner with a sense of urgency, according an Indian Republic Day statement read by Indian envoy to China Ambassador Ashok K. Kantha. These comments came during a sense in unease in China over Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to New Delhi, where he was Chief Guest at the Indian Republic Day Parade.

Delay hits China border road plans
Times of India, January 27
Alleged bureaucratic delays, held-up environmental clearances,  antiquated construction equipment and inadequate manpower have left the India-China Border Roads Project in Uttarakhand in limbo. To date, only one stretch of the prioritized border road project has entered the second phase of construction. None of the 19 “critical and strategically important” India-China border roads being constructed in the state have been able to meet the December 2012 deadline.

News Reports

China and India in the Region

China and Russia back India on supporting Sheikh Hasina government
The Economic Times, January 16
India has received a shot in the arm with Russia and China supporting its position that the return of Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh after the recent polls has strengthened prospects of stability in the region. While Russia has traditionally supported India’s stand on Bangladesh, China could have been influenced by its desire to join regional efforts to combat radical groups that have arisen from religious extremism in Xinjiang province.

India, China, Russia hold talks on Afghan issue
The Hindu, January 17
India, China and Russia held trilateral consultations to coordinate their views on the situation in Afghanistan, amid heightened regional diplomacy in the lead-up to the withdrawal of NATO forces. The three countries agreed that “security in Afghanistan is important to the country and the region.” They also reiterated their support “for a strong, united, stable, peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan” and agreed to hold further talks.

Pakistan in Talks to Acquire 3 Nuclear Plants From China
Wall Street Journal, January 20
Pakistan is in talks with China to acquire three large nuclear power plants for around $13 billion, Pakistani officials said, in a blow to international efforts to restrict trade in nuclear technology. A deal to purchase three reactors would be in addition to last year’s agreement for China to build two nuclear plants in Pakistan’s southern port of Karachi. The reactors would help plug the gap in Pakistan’s electricity supply and cement an alliance with China aimed at counteracting their mutual rival India. The China-Pakistan deal is similar to an earlier U.S.-India deal to provide India with civil nuclear energy capability, despite India, like Pakistan, not being a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Japan ride, China rider – Tokyo ends arms embargo on India, seeks statement
Telegraph India, January 21
Japan has decided to end its 47-year old self-imposed embargo on exporting weapon, agreeing to sell New Delhi fully armed amphibious aircraft ahead of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to India, despite strong domestic concerns. In exchange, Tokyo is seeking a reference to Japan’s ongoing territorial disputes with China in the joint statement Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Abe will issue after their talks.

India, Japan pledge stronger defence ties
Agence France Presse, January 25
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe affirmed plans to “further strengthen” defence cooperation against the backdrop of an increasingly assertive China during the first day of Prime Minister Abe’s official visit to New Delhi. In addition to pledging to strengthen bilateral defence cooperation, India and Japan also “renewed their resolution” to conduct joint maritime exercises on a “regular basis with increased frequency,” and announced a Japanese $2 billion low-interest loan to India to extend the Delhi metro.

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s India visit to be closely watched by China
Live Mint, January 25
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to India is expected to be closely watched in China, as Prime Minister Abe is the fourth dignitary from the region to be invited as the chief guest at India’s Republic Day parade. Previous guests include South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, an indication of India’s serious engagement with countries long considered to be in China’s backyard. Chinese ambassador to India Wei Wei has recently written in Indian newspapers about strengthening China-India ties and Japan’s role in World War II, a sign that Beijing is paying close attention to Prime Minister Abe’s visit.

China on the radar, India invites Japan for Indo-US Malabar naval war games
The Times of India, January 25
India has invited Japan to participate in 2014’s Indo-US Malabar naval war games, which have alarmed China in the past. In addition, India and Japan have decided to hold another joint working group meeting in March to discuss the sale of Japanese US-2i ShinMayva amphibious aircraft to the Indian Navy. This is the first time that the Malabar war games have been expanded since China’s protest when the 2007 war games were opened up to Australia, Japan and Singapore.

India joins Japan in veiled criticism of China air defence zone
Live Mint, January 25
A joint statement by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has “underscored the importance of freedom of overflight and civil aviation safety in accordance with the recognized principles of international law and the relevant standards and recommended practices of the international civil aviation organization.” This was a veiled critique of China’s recent establishment of an Air Defence Identification Zone over the East China Sea, including over parts of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands contested by China and Japan.

China is largest FDI source for Nepal, overtakes India
The Hindu, January 26
China has overtaken India to become the largest contributor of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Nepal over the first six months of the current fiscal year, underlining the rising Chinese economic presence — and strategic influence — in the country. Investment from China into Nepal reached $174 million between July and December 2013 accounting for over 60 per cent of total FDI. This marks a three-fold increase from the same period in the 2011-2012 fiscal year.

India, Japan Showcase Partnership on Republic Day
Wall Street Journal, January 26
While China was not mentioned by name during Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to India, “worries about Beijing’s ambitions and its growing ability to project military power are driving closer ties between Japan and India, both of which are embroiled in territorial disputes with China.” Japan and India both share concerns about China’s encroachment in the East China Sea and Indian Ocean respectively and, unlike many other countries in Asia, India’s relationship with Japan is not weighed down with historical baggage.

Japan enters where China is barred—northeast India
The Times of India, January 27
India and Japan have dramatically expanded the scope of bilateral cooperation to include the politically sensitive northeastern states of India, areas where Chinese investment or projects are actively discouraged. Japanese companies will participate in the development of the northeast, particularly in infrastrucutre. Japanese companies have also been invited to help develop a new port in Chennai, which would be used to improve India’s sea-route connectivity. India keeps China out of port development because ports are considered part of India’s critical infrastructure.

Abe cozies up to India
Global Times, January 27
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attended India’s Republic Day as the chief guest during his three-day visit to India, a tour analysts said aims at pinning down China but is unlikely to succeed. Prime Minister Abe is the first Japanese prime minister to attend as chief guest at India’s annual Republic Day celebrations involving a parade of military hardware in New Delhi. Prime Minister Abe and his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh affirmed plans to “further strengthen” defence cooperation at a meeting. The two countries also agreed to carry out a trilateral naval drill with the U.S., a move apparently aimed at curbing China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea and the East China Sea.

News Reports

Trade and Economy

Hong Kong, Macau need RBI nod to set up business in India
The Indian Express, January 16
The Reserve Bank of India has included Hong Kong and Macau in the sensitive list of countries – along with Pakistan and China – that will require its prior approval to set up business or related activities in India. Entities from these countries are not allowed to acquire immovable property in India even for a branch office.

Buffalo meat export to China pushes up Indian agri-export
Business Standard, January 18
Indian buffalo meat has been invading Chinese homes and restaurants. Even as China has yet to open doors for direct export of buffalo meat from India, close to a fivefold rise in buffalo meat exports from India to China, routed through Vietnam, has given a substantial boost to Indian exports of buffalo meat, now India’s second high agricultural export commodity after Basmati rice.

Feature: Chinese enterprise helps power India
Global Times, January 21
Power HF, a Chinese machine and generator manufacture based in Shandong province, has exported 38,500engines to India for use in telecom base stations across the country. Unlike other manufacturers which limited themselves to exports, Power HF opened a service business in India. While conditions are difficult in India due to poor infrastructure and a complicated language system, these also present opportunities for investment and market expansion. The Indian market now represents more than 30 per cent of Power HF’s total revenue.

India’s neighbours to help offset lower cotton exports to China
Reuters, January 21
A spurt in demand from Bangladesh and Pakistan for Indian raw cotton will help New Delhi offset falling exports to its top client China, traders said. A bountiful crop and a weaker rupee have made Indian cotton cheaper for overseas textile and clothing makers, primarily in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey and Vietnam. The increase in demand from other markets will help stem an overall decline as Beijing prepares to scrap a cotton stockpiling scheme, which could boost volumes of locally-grown cotton in Chinese markets.

Chinese power firms in India under pressure due to rupee
The Economic Times, January 21
Chinese power generation companies that rapidly expanded operations in India in recent years are complaining of pressure due to depreciation of the rupee and appreciation of the renminbi, saying it has eroded their profits. The Indian rupee devalued about 20 percent at one stage in 2013, while the renminbi appreciated five percent, eroding a quarter of the gross profit margin, said Chairman of Chinese machine and generator manufacturer Power HF, Xu Huadong.

China soon to become the ‘next India’ in software services
ZDNet, January 23
China has nosed ahead of India in the availability of software developers and is rapidly closing the gap in the pool of employable people in IT, an area India has dominated for over two decades. The United States has the largest number of global software developers (both professional and hobbyists) with 19 per cent of the worldwide total, while China has 10 per cent and India has 9.8 per cent. China has been surging ahead of India due to its successful e-commerce industry, which led to an increase in demand for coders and technical services companies.

India smartphone wars brewing with challenge from Chinese vendors
ZDNet, January 23
Homegrown Indian smartphone companies Micromax and Karbonn, which have dominated the Indian market over global brands such as Nokia and Blackberry, are being challenged by Chinese smartphone companies. ZTE, China’s largest 4G vendor, has announced that it wants to grow the device market in India by 30 per cent via its popular Grand and Nubia phone lines. Another Chinese handset maker, Gionee, is also actively marketing its products in India. Chinese companies still face a lot of competition from both local and international brands, which the Indian consumer will only benefit from.

China way ahead of India in acquiring African assets: Uganda
Business Standard, January 24
Despite China’s late entry into Africa relative to India, Chinese companies have moved far more aggressively than Indian ones in tapping natural resources such as oil, gas and minerals. Uganda is a member of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, a partner region of the India Engineering Sourcing Show aggressively scouting for Indian investment in Africa.

China’s Gionee targets 10% share in India
Times of India, January 24
Chinese smartphone maker Gionee Communication Equipment is aiming to capture a 10 % share of the Indian market over the two to three years. That will require the company to increase its current market share several times, competing with established players like Samsung.

News Reports

Energy and Environment

India’s energy demand to surpass China’s by 2035: BP
Mint, January 16
India is likely to surpass China as the largest source of energy demand growth in the world by 2035, according to the latest BP Energy Outlook 2035. The growth in demand for energy in India will outpace each of the other BRIC countries, the report said. India’s energy demand is expected to grow by 132%, while China and Brazil’s energy demand will grow by 71% and Russia’s by 20%. Growth in India’s energy demand will be around double the aggregate of non-OECD countries.

Home Ministry cautions against giving oil blocks to Chinese firms
The Hindu, January 20
The Union Home Ministry has “advised” the Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry to not give exploration and production contracts for oil and gas blocks to Chinese companies for security reasons. In its advisory, the Home Ministry said some of the blocks proposed for oil and gas exploration in Rajasthan, Punjab and Gujarat were located close to the border with Pakistan. “China is already involved in developing various projects in Pakistan, including those located close to the Indo-Pakistan border. It is advisable thats Chinese companies are not given contract for exploration activities in such blocks and also in blocks close to sensitive defence installations, strategic assets and in the north-east,” the advisory said.

Obama: Climate Change Plan Will Help U.S. Negotiate with China, India
National Journal, January 23
In an interview with the New Yorker, President Barack Obama claimed that domestic climate policies will give the United States leverage in climate change negotiations with emerging economies by showing that the U.S. is taking steps to curb climate change as the second largest greenhouse gas emitter. These comments were made in the wake of Republican criticism that White House policies would not make dent in global greenhouse gas emissions due to soaring emissions from developing economies.

Beijing’s Bad Air Would Be Step Up for Smoggy Delhi
New York Times, January 26
Though air pollution is much worse in New Delhi, Beijing’s reputation for poor air quality is more well-known. As a result, there is little public and global pressure on India’s government to improve urban air quality, whereas China has faced more scrutiny and has been pushed for more reliable data. China and India recently resisted pollution limits in global climate talks in Warsaw.

Analyses and Commentaries

The politics of self-interest bind India and China together
East Asia Forum, January 15
Melissa Conley Tyler and Aakriti Bachhawat write that, given the many troubles plaguing China-India relations, it was a surprise when the recent dialogue between the two countries was able to focus on the potential for cooperation, particularly when it comes to developing the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor. “There is undoubtedly an immediate economic interest for India to support each other,” but competition can still get in the way.

Chinese Takeaway
The Indian Express, January 15
Preventing other countries from intervening in its disputes with Pakistan has long been a major objective of India’s foreign policy, C. Raja Mohan writes. However, as China’s neighbours with whom it has territorial disputes seek India’s support, India’s approach to the disputes “must be based on considerations of both power and principle.”

China Expands into Himalayan Neighbour Nepal
International Relations and Security Network ETH Zurich, January 15
According to Saransh Sehgal, strong relations with Nepal not only help Beijing control Tibet better, they also provide it with an opportunity to keep India’s geostrategic interests in check. Geopolitically, Nepal is attempting to balance between China and India, though growing Chinese influence in the country has been paying off well and could lead Nepal to give up on India altogether.

Is Trilateral China-India-Russia Cooperation in Afghanistan Possible?
The Diplomat, January 16
Ankit Panda writes that while China-India-Russia cooperation in Afghanistan in advance of NATO forces’ withdrawal in 2014 would be “a net positive for regional security,” collaboration could be derailed if India and China begin to frame the discussion about Afghanistan in counterterrorism terms, which would inevitably involve Pakistan. However, there are positive signs that Beijing is serious about trilateral talks, such as avoiding linkages between its relationships with Islamabad and Kabul, and agreeing to host the summit.

India’s top security risks in 2014
Gateway House, January 16
Sameer Patil identifies the border issue with China as one of India’s top security risks for 2014. Despite the recent signing of the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement, Chinese intrusions into Indian territory and accompanying tensions are not expected to subside. India must also remain vigilant of China’s growing influence in Nepal and Bhutan. Indian policymakers must also step up defence planning to keep up with China’s expanding presence in the Indian Ocean region and South China Sea, and expand the role of the private sector in shipbuilding to better protect India’s maritime interests.

Estrangement and engagement
The Hindu, January 16
Jayant Prasad writes that though the United States and India’s geo-strategic interests will never completely converge, they share common concerns about the rise of China. Both have “adversarial relationships” with China. The United States and India are both pursuing separate China strategies, though they should having “deeper conversations […] minus pivoting, rebalancing, and containment against China.”

The BRICS’ African Safari
The Diplomat, January 17
Oliver Stuenkel reviews Pádraig Carmody’s The Rise of the BRICS in Africa: The Geopolitics of South-South Relations. While opinions about the consequences of China’s presence in Africa diverge, Stuenkel observes, most analysts know very little about India, Brazil, South Africa or Russia’s activities across the African continent. Carmody, unlike the rest, has written a well-researched and highly readable analysis of the BRICS in Africa.

North East Asia Strategically Notices India – Analysis
Eurasia Review, January 17
Subhash Kapila highlights that North East Asia is a strategically significant region in the unfolding of a new and possibly more intense Cold War, this time between China and the United States. With China looming large, India stands strategically noticed by the two prominent regional actors, namely Japan and South Korea, possibly because India’s power differentials with China are not too wide and Japan- India and South Korea-India have enough strategic convergences. Kapila calls the concept of “strategic non-alignment” “naïve,” calling for India to practice “balance of power” politics, even without entering into alliances.

A foreign policy worthy of the Indian dream
Deccan Chronicle, January 17
K.C. Singh sees the rise of China and the spread of radical Islam as India’s two main foreign policy concerns. While the Congress party and the last Bharatiya Janata Party-led administration have been an advocates for careful engagement and low-key balancing in dealing with China, “there is a body of opinion amongst Indian Marxists and businessmen, seeking Chinese goods and capital, that India should open the door to China even whi­le China continues to arm Pak­istan and squ­e­eze India along its entire periphery.” Singh calls for “an approach that is fearless and yet non-provocative, principled without bei­ng prescriptive, and thus seen in Asia and beyond as India’s soft power back­ed by military muscle.”

South Korea Calling India
The Diplomat, January 18
Sreeram Chaulia writes that South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s recent India visit is a clear indicator that Indian ties with South Korea have been growing stronger. Despite South Korea’s alliance with the United States and China’s alliance with North Korea, China and South Korea have a shared cultural affinity and history of Japanese imperialism. Both China and South Korea strongly condemned Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s recent visit to Yasukuni shrine. China and South Korea’s trade relationship is also booming. Yet Seoul’s subtler approach towards Beijing may suit New Delhi’s wariness of being drawn into an American bloc to keep China in check.

As India Hosts South Korean President and Japanese PM, It Must Rethink China Policy
New Indian Express, January 19
Mohan Das Menon calls for India to support other countries with territorial disputes with China, as “one does not have to be a geopolitical genius to figure that if China prevails over Japan and the ASEAN, Beijing might be a lot less accommodative of India’s interests along and across the Great Himalayas.” Menon points out that China’s influence is growing in South Asia, and the arrivals of Chinese East Asian rivals in New Delhi has given India the opportunity to “recalibrate” its China policy.

Abe’s strategic diplomacy will find few takers
Global Times, January 20
According to Wu Haizhong, recent Japanese efforts to engage with countries like India, ASEAN and Bangladesh with “yen diplomacy” to rein in China is “wishful thinking.” Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s political instability and unfavourable fiscal situation will prove economic diplomacy unsustainable, and Japan is targeting are committed to pragmatic, independent foreign policies and wish to avoid becoming “cat’s paws.”

Counterweight to China
The Times of India, January 20
Nayan Chanda writes that while Indo-Japanese relations have been blossoming, New Delhi and Tokyo’s relationships with Beijing have been deteriorating. This has created opportunities for India and Japan to further strengthen their ties in defence and trade. However, India needs to balance this growing relationship with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s revisionist history of World War II, and the continuing importance of preserving relations with China. “Strengthening cooperation with Japan is not to provoke China but to signal India has other options if China does not reciprocate its friendly gesture.”

India-Japan Ties Strengthen
The Diplomat, January 21
Nitin Gokhale notes the more robust relations between India and Japan both economically and militarily, “certainly an outcome of the collective unease in Asia over what many think is China’s rambunctious behaviour. Despite India’s wariness of becoming part of security alliances or blocs, it is hoping to create enough synergy with India and Southeast Asian countries to deter China. Gokhale suggests that Asian countries might be better off finding their own solutions to regional disputes instead of relying on the U.S. for deterrence, as collectively they might be able to stand up to China, which India, Japan and Korea will have to take the lead on.

Will China, India rivalry be start of a new space race?
The China Post, January 20
A China Post editorial suggests that though China and India are currently the only big players in space exploration, a space race between the two like the one between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War is unlikely. While China and India have had occasional spats over their shared border, they are not on the scale as the wide geopolitical gulf that separated the Western and Eastern blocs during the Cold War.

The Indo-Pacific ‘Great Game’ unfolds
Hindustan Times, January 23
Kamal Davar writes that “it is but natural” that India and Japan wish to strengthen their strategic relationship given China’s naval modernisation programme and its increased in naval forays into crucial choke points in the Indian Ocean Region, through which nearly 80 percent of world trade passes. While India is less keen than Japan to push for greater maritime cooperation among China’s rivals, it must take necessary steps to prepare for the unfolding “Great Game” in the Indo-Pacific.

India, Japan and a broader Asia
Live Mint, January 23
As India looks East to strengthen its position in Southeast Asia and deepen ties with Japan, it has to take be aware of an emerging China and its growing military ambitions. China is currently embroiled in territorial disputes with a number of Asian countries and any Chinese overtures at this point has to be seen as an “opportunistic pre-emption” of Indian collaboration with Southeast and East Asia against China. However, while Japan and India have a “natural affinity” to find a solution to their mutual problems with China, this cannot be the only determinant of the relationship.

Rivalry between China and India can be resolved through ‘cold peace’
Global Times, January 23
Jeff M. Smith presents some possible scenarios of China’s the dramatic changes in the 21st century in his latest book Cold Peace: China-India Rivalry in the Twenty-First Century. The author predicts that China and India, the two largest Asian civilisations, will join the U.S. in an elite club of global superpowers. Although written under the theme of rivalry, the book, in general, depicts a peaceful coexistence for China and India without making “value judgments.” 

Coming full circle: Shinzo Abe in India
The Hindu, January 25
Ananth Krishnan notes that while Japan’s ties with India have only been accelerating over the past few Japanese prime ministers, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s foreign policy record is chequered, particularly when it comes to relations with China. Prime Minister Abe’s quest to take Japan away from its imposed post-World War II pacifism and become a “normal country” bodes well for India and the region as it will mean that Japan can take on greater security responsibilities in the region. However, tensions have also risen between Japan and China and South Korea due to Prime Minister Abe’s visit to the Yasukuni shrine.

India, Japan snuggle closer as China power grows
CNN, January 25
Geoff Hiscock observes that China views Japan and India’s growing closeness as “just another indicator of what it regards as a U.S.-led attempt to encircle or contain China.” Both Japan and India have territorial disputes with China, and Japan, particularly current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, “has long regarded India as a powerful counterweight to China’s strategic rise in the Indo-Pacific region.”

Japan, India and the balance of power
The Hindu, January 27
K. Shankar Bajpai points out that while Japan and India now can claim that they are not aiming to counter China, strong ties between the two countries will be important in the case of possible future Chinese hostility. “That nobody is about to attack you tomorrow does not mean there is no ‘clear and present danger’ demanding preparation for tomorrow,” Bajpai writes. “Enhancing our capacity to ensure our territorial integrity brooks no slacking."

Journal Articles and Publications

From Frontier Policy to Foreign Policy: The Question of India and the Transformation of Geopolitics in Qing China by Matthew W. Mosca
The China Journal, January 2014
David Brophy reviews Matthew W. Mosca’s book on the sources of China’s knowledge of India and their means of processing them, which looks at Chinese, Buddhist, Mongolian, Muslim and Jesuit conceptions of Indian geography, as well as the impact that British imperialism had on how China perceived British India. Brophy finds that the book makes “a contribution, not only to Qing history, but to the history of Chinese foreign policy more generally, and of Sino–Indian relations.”

International conflict over water resources in Himalayan Asia
Contemporary South Asia, January 15
Bhumitra Chakma praises Robert G. Wirsing, Daniel C. Stoll and Christopher Jasparre’s book, writing that “the academic and practical value of the book cannot be overstated.” Wirsing et al’s book provides a comprehensive analysis of how the water issue has emerged as a critical factor in the international relations of Himalayan Asia, which will only become more difficult to resolve as water crises begin to emerge in the most highly populated region of the world.

China’s Counterinsurgency Strategy in Tibet and Xinjiang
Journal of Contemporary China, January 21
Liselotte Odgaard and Thomas Galasz Nielsen analyse China’s counterinsurgency strategy in Tibet and Xinjiang and find that it relies heavily on hard power and imposition due to well-functioning vertical coordination in the security sector and the territorial and unitary brand of Chinese nationalism. Insurgent groups’ transnational links also contribute to ethnic cleavages within China, which encourages Chinese authorities to employ hard power rather than economic development. With regard to Tibet, India serves as a base for Tibet’s exiled leadership, which has developed a strong lobby group within India. The internationalization of the Tibet issue has contributed to rising Sino-Indian tensions in recent years and has complicated Beijing’s attempts to incorporate Tibet as part of the Chinese nation. However, China and India have also made efforts towards transnational security and economic cooperation in an attempt to stem extremist activity from Tibet

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