China-India Brief #12

Guest Column

India-China Relations in a multipolar world

By Zorawar Daulet Singh

At recent closed door discussions with think tanks in China, one interlocutor suggested that the Asian dynamic is one of a “simultaneous rise” of multiple powers and not just a China story. A dominant theme that emerged is China’s US-centric foreign policy has been displaced by more diversified “major power” diplomacy and a stronger focus on China’s neighbours. Another scholar remarked that India and China’s rise should be managed by the logic of “power sharing” and respect for each other’s core interests.

Few Indian strategists would disagree with such propositions. A multipolar Asia Pacific is emerging. The US, Russia, Japan, South East Asia and India all have vital stakes in the evolution of the wider region. China’s geopolitical location at the heart of Asia provides it an opportunity to influence several sub-regions such as Central Asia, South Asia, South East Asia and Northeast Asia. Simultaneously, however, Beijing must contend with major powers in these sub-regions.

As India’s National Security Advisor, Shiv Shankar Menon, remarked in January 2012, “The issue is whether we (India and China) can continue to manage the elements of competition within an agreed strategic framework which permits both of us to pursue our core interests.”

It is useful to step back and look at the framework that has been guiding bilateral relations since the 1970s. After the 1979 China visit of then Foreign Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, a three-point formula was established. Both sides agreed to pursue a resolution of the boundary dispute; both agreed to maintain peace and tranquility on the frontier during that process; and both agreed that there should be no impediment to the development of bilateral relations in various fields. This framework was reaffirmed during the closing stages of the Cold War at the 1988 Rajiv Gandhi-Deng Xiaoping summit.

Essentially, this framework has guided bilateral relations for over two decades. How can we assess the three facets of the framework?

Dispute resolution has been a glacial process with one important milestone, namely the 2005 agreement where China and India have closed the gap in identifying the principles for a settlement. A final resolution is closely entwined with geopolitical and domestic political factors and both sides share the responsibility for skirting a settlement.

This leads directly to the second point – the maintenance of a stable line of actual control (LoAC). During the past decade, India has in fits and starts been reacting to China’s logistical and military superiority in Tibet. As both sides have expanded their lines of communication and patrolling capabilities, the LoAC is being probed more enthusiastically. Recent events on the frontier and the frequency of “face offs” between the two militaries underscore a pattern of both sides closing in on disputed sections of the border. This is also the context around Indian Defense Minister A.K. Antony’s recent statement in Parliament that “China fears that India is catching up” on the border. 

Despite an ongoing process to negotiate new norms and confidence-building measures to respond to the changing military balance, it is becoming evident that an undefined LoAC cannot produce a stable frontier. The main reason for an ambiguous LoAC seems to lie with the Chinese side, which has been unwilling to legitimise an alignment that leaves less room for competing perceptions. Possibly, China perceived its geostrategic and military advantages on the frontier could sustain an ambiguous but stable LoAC. Recent events suggest this assumption is becoming outdated. While some Chinese scholars, in my recent interactions, recognised the risks of an undefined LoAC, it is unclear if Beijing is prepared to explore a new approach.

It is the third point of the 1979 three-point formula that has witnessed extraordinary change. While India and China agreed to disagree on their dispute, relations in other spheres have evolved considerably. This greater interdependence is producing new opportunities but also frictions.

In the political economy sphere, structural asymmetries have become stark. China accounts for over a fifth of India’s trade deficit and nearly half of India’s non-oil trade deficit. India cannot engage China’s industrial and manufacturing system in a frontal competition without a robust policy framework within. Indian policymakers have simply not stepped up to the plate. China’s tepid response in ensuring market access for Indian exports has further exacerbated the imbalance.

Beyond the bilateral, both countries have recognised and pursued common goals. These “common interests” include reforms of the Bretton Woods system, with BRICS as a means of projecting new norms and institutions to advance the interests of emerging economies. On norms of sovereignty and non-intervention too, India and China view the Westphalian order through similar lens.

On all three aspects, the original framework for bilateral relations is being tested because each element–dispute resolution, LoAC stability and complex interdependence—is posing new challenges and opportunities. Further, de-linking these three aspects is becoming increasingly difficult.

India needs a stable domestic political and economic environment to engage Beijing on these core questions.

Zorawar Daulet Singh is a doctoral candidate at the India Institute, King’s College London.

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News Reports

Bilateral relations

India-China hold talks on science and tech after 11 years
Business Standard, September 11
Talks between Chinese and Indian ministries of science and technology were held for the first time since 2002 in Beijing. The talks encompassed numerous issues of mutual concern, including earthquake prediction and disaster management, astronomy, traditional medicine and climate change. Participants agreed to hold a series of more in-depth workshops on topics discussed.

PM may meet Chinese Prez in Beijing on Oct 23
Hindustan Times, September 12
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is expected to travel to Beijing and meet Chinese President Xi Jinping for summit level talks on October 23, despite tensions over frequent incursions by Chinese troops into Indian territory. The trip is aimed at expanding bilateral trade and removing China’s anxiety over India upgrading its border infrastructure along the 3,488-km LAC, which is said to be making Beijing increasingly wary.

Army Chief Bikram Singh to review security situation in Ladakh
Indian Express, September 14
Against the backdrop of increasing incidents of Chinese incursions, Army Chief General Bikram Singh reached Ladakh on Saturday to review the security situation there. During the day-long visit, the Army Chief will take stock of the situation in the Ladakh sector, which is the area of responsibility of the Leh-based 14 Corps, Army officials posted there said. The visit of the Army Chief to Ladakh comes at a time when concerns have been raised over the increasing incidents of intrusions by China’s Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) in Indian areas and face-offs between the troops of the two sides.

India, China talk of strengthening bilateral ties
Business Standard, September 16
Minister Salman Khurshid and China’s Minister of the State Council Information Office Cai Mingzhao both reaffirmed the importance of strengthening cooperation between China and India. These statements were made at the inauguration of the India China Media Forum in New Delhi.

India, China boundary dispute not insurmountable: Salman Khurshid
Economic Times, September 16
Minister Khurshid said that the China-India border is “not an insurmountable issue” and that the Asian century will be an unfulfilled dream if China and India do not cooperate more on important global issues.

Chinese official calls for better China-India media exchanges, cooperation
Xinhua, September 16
Minister Khurshid and Minister Cai emphasized the role of the media in facilitating better relations between China and India and called for stronger relationships so as to improve the reporting on each other’s countries.

Despite cooperation, India-China border is issue: Foreign secretary
DNA, September 16
Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh said at the India China Media Forum that though China-India relations were stable, there were several areas, most notably the border issue, on which the two countries could widen the scope of engagement. Secretary Singh also noted that despite the huge number of media organizations in both countries, very few of them had correspondents covering each other’s countries.

Go beyond negative portrayals—media in India, China urged
The Hindu, September 17
Chinese and Indian journalists at the India China Media Forum discussed ways in which they could improve reporting on each other’s countries. Both sides agreed that exchange programmes and branching out from the major issues of the border, the South China Sea, Tibet and China-Taiwan would help balance their coverage.

PLA’s drills seen as response to India’s infrastructure moves
The Hindu, September 18
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops of the Lanzhou Military Area Command, under whose responsibility the Aksai Chin region falls, conducted “high-profile live-ammunition” drills over recent days. These drills took place after recent incursion incidents at the western section of the China-India border.

New Delhi hopes to forge ties with Beijing
China Daily, September 18
Ahead of the upcoming visit by Prime Minister Singh to Beijing in October, New Delhi has called for more exchanges between the two countries to enhance mutual trust and expand areas of common interest. When Prime Minister Singh arrives in China next month, it will be the first time since 1954 that the two countries’ prime ministers have exchanged visits in the same year.

‘Identity Crisis Threat in NE from Neighbouring Countries’
Outlook, September 18
Former Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MP from Arunchal Pradesh Kiren Rijiju claimed during a party meeting that there was a danger of an identity crisis in India’s northeast regions due to countries like China, Bangladesh and Myanmar “challenging” India. Rijiju also declared that only the BJP could protect India.

Arunachal leaders urge Manmohan Singh to end Tibet crisis
Times of India, September 19
In a memorandum to Prime Minister Singh on Tuesday, leaders from various political parties of Arunachal Pradesh urged the Indian government to stand in solidarity with Tibet and begin a dialogue with China to bring about a permanent solution to the Tibet issue.

Chinese varsities to face hurdles before they can set shop in India
Business Standard, September 19
The Indian Ministry of Human Resource Development will seek the advice of ministries of external affairs, home affairs and intelligence agencies before permitting Chinese universities to set up campuses in India. Proposals from China, Pakistan and Bangladesh are treated as “sensitive,” according to a HRD ministry official.

Khurshid rubbishes reports of repeated incursions by China
India Today, September 20
Minister Khurshid has denied reports of repeated incursions by China across the Sino-Indian border. He refused to accept criticisms that the United Progressive Alliance government was allowing itself to be pushed around and was not doing enough to prevent China from intruding into Indian territory repeatedly.

‘India, China destined to compete’
Business Standard, September 20
Lt. Gen. (ret.) S.P. Tanwar of India has said that “understanding China is of paramount importance…and language and communication is the first step to understand China.” Lt. Gen. Tanwar made these remarks during the valedictory address of the four-week Mandarin language training programme for Indian Army officers at the O.P. Jindal Global University.

India ups ante, flies sorties along LAC
Hindustan Times, September 23
The Indian Air Force has been landing special mission planes at Daulet Beg Oldie airstrip despite China’s demands that the airstrip be deactivated. These sorties are a sign of India’s hardening stance on the border issue.

Salman Khurshid: There is an ‘overall consensus’ in India to develop relations with China
People’s Daily, September 23
Minister Khurshid has denied that India is allying itself with the United States and Japan and has emphasized that it has an “open and honest relationship” with China. Minister Khurshid made these remarks to the Chinese press in advance of Prime Minister Singh’s upcoming visit to Beijing in October.

Indo-Tibetan meet proposes boycott of Chinese goods
Times of India, September 23
Former Union minister Vikram Mahajan called for a boycott of Chinese goods during a meeting between Tibet’s exiled parliament and members of the National Security Forum.  The Speaker of Tibet’s parliament in exile Penpa Tsering also voiced his support for a boycott as a method of non-violent struggle.

News Reports

China and India in the Region

Khurshid to pitch for India’s membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organisation club
Times of India, September 13
Minister Khurshid is again expected to make a strong pitch for India’s full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) — led by Russia and China — during the summit meet in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. India is currently an observer in the group. The SCO has, however, not been able to evolve a consensus over the method for its further expansion. While China has conveyed to India that it supports New Delhi’s initiative for a bigger role in the region, it is silent over the specific issue of India’s full membership.

China eyes Sri Lankan free-trade deal
South China Morning Post, September 16
Formal discussions between China and Sri Lanka on a free trade deal have begun and could be completed by as early as next year. India already has a free trade agreement in place with Sri Lanka and is currently its largest trading partner, though Chinese companies have already spent billions of dollars building infrastructure in Sri Lanka, which is recovering from a decades-long civil war.

Risks load up for Colombo port from India plans
South China Morning Post, September 16
Rising competition from ports being built in India could pose a threat to cargo throughput at a new container port in Colombo, Sri Lanka, which is operated and 85 per cent-owned by China Merchants Holdings (International). India’s port investment plans are seen as a response to China’s port projects in South Asia, the “string of pearls” encircling the subcontinent.

Modi Attacks India Leaders Over China, Pakistan Border Disputes
Bloomberg, September 16
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, in his first major speech since he emerged as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s candidate for Prime Minister, has criticized Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government’s response to recent border confrontations with China and Pakistan.

Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa says he won’t allow anti-India acts
India Today, September 17
In response to opposition party Tamil National Alliance’s questions on the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka, Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa has affirmed that he will “never allow any country to act against India in any way from our soil.”

A Japanese assignment
The Hindu, September 19
Prime Minister Singh’s Special Envoy to Japan, Ashwani Kumar, is interviewed on India-Japan relations and the place of China in this regard, among other subjects. Kumar particularly touches upon the need to improve Japan’s relatively weaker trade engagement with India vis-à-vis China. While 926 Japanese companies operate in India, around 10,000 Japanese companies operate in China.

New cold war and proxy war in Afghanistan post-2014 can hurt Pak-India ties: Mushahid
Business Recorder, September 19
Pakistani senator Mushahid Hussain, Chairman of Pakistan’s Senate Defence Committee, called for cooperation between India and Pakistan to “create new regionalism” while addressing the Pakistan India Parliamentarians’ Dialogue in Islamabad. Senator Mushahid noted that the South Asian region is no longer limited to South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries but now also includes China, Myanmar, Iran and Afghanistan.

Salman Khurshid reiterates fears over China-Pakistan nuclear ties
Economic Times, September 19
Minister Khurshid voiced his unease over China’s expanding nuclear relations with Pakistan to visiting Chinese journalists in New Delhi. However, Minister Khurshid emphasized that India was only concerned with the relationship’s impact on nuclear non-proliferation.

Prospects of peace as India-Pakistan tensions have eased: China
Economic Times, September 22
Chinese Vice-President Li Yuanchao, in an address at the China-South Asia Peace and Development Forum in Kunming, China, has said that India’s easing relations with Pakistan and Bangladesh have improved the prospects for peace in South Asia.

News Reports

Military and Defence 

India to Test “China Killer” Agni-V ICBM
The Diplomat, September 11
India will retest the Agni-V, its longest-range nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), in mid-September, according to officials from India’s Defense Research and Development Organization.

India retests missile able to reach Chinese cities
Associated Press, September 15
India has, for the second time, successfully tested the Agni-V. The ICBM has a range of 5,000 kilometres, putting Beijing and Shanghai within striking distance. China’s missile arsenal remains far from advanced than India’s, with intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of hitting anywhere in India.

China reacts cautiously to India’s second launch of Agni-V
Mint, September 16
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei called for “concerted efforts to enhance political mutual trust” when asked for comments on India’s second launch of intercontinental ballistic missile Agni-V.

India’s development of ICBMs likely to fuel arms race with China
Times of India, September 18
An article in the latest issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has suggested that India’s more sophisticated ICBM arsenal and greater US missile defence capabilities in the Pacific “could motivate China to deploy [multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle-capable] missiles as well.”

US cautions against arms race between India, China
Hindustan Times, September 19
US Deputy Secretary of Defence Ashton B. Carter, when asked to comment on China’s growing missile stockpile against the backdrop of the second successful Agni-V test, has said that Washington did not believe that Asia should be “the scene of any competition or an arms, let alone conflict.” Deputy Secretary Carter was in New Delhi on a visit to enhance India-US defence cooperation.

When the Chinese tried ‘too hard’ for the aircraft carrier Vikrant
India Today, September 22
A Chinese Central Television (CCTV) employed “dubious” means to obtain footage of India’s new indigenous aircraft carrier Vikrant before the ship was scheduled to be officially unveiled, according to a senior Indian Ministry of Defence official.

News Reports

Trade and Economy

Right time to invest: India tells Chinese investors
Business Standard, September 10
The Indian consulate in Guangzhou has urged Chinese investors to take advantage of market conditions to invest in India. An Indian pavilion has also been set up at the 17th China International Fair for Investment and Trade in Xiamen as part of a push for Chinese investment. India is currently the largest market for project exports from China.

Indian bulk drug industry faces heat from China
Business Standard, September 10
The Indian bulk drug industry seems to be facing stiff competition from China. The Indian bulk drug industry feels that while imports from China are growing at 30 per cent, Indian exporters are finding it difficult to crack the Chinese market.

A looming crisis
The Hindu, September 14
The import of cheap Chinese silk is said to be “choking [India’s] indigenous sericulturists and weavers.” Chinese silk yarn lends itself much better to power looms, which have been pushing traditional handloom weavers to the margins. Raw Chinese silk yarn is also being dumped in the Indian market, and India has filed 149 anti-dumping cases against China to date.

Indo-Lanka textile agreement inked
Sunday Observer, September 15
During the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Sri Lanka and India on textile cooperation, Secretary of the Indian Ministry of Textiles Zohra Chaterji remarked that Sri Lanka and India could jointly compete for China’s textile market. Production costs of Chinese textiles and garments are on the rise, creating opportunities for foreign imports.

India welcomes Chinese investments in infrastructure sector
Economic Times, September 16
Minister Khurshid called for greater Chinese investment in infrastructure as well as greater Indian market access to the Chinese pharmaceutical and IT markets in order to reduce India’s trade deficit with China.

China extends Japanese, Indian pyridine import investigation
Global Times, September 16
China’s Ministry of Commerce announced it would extend anti-dumping investigations over pyridine imports from Japan and India. Investigation authorities are to examine whether and to what extent such imports hurt the Chinese pyridine industry. The investigation was launched on September 21, 2012 and was meant to finish in a year but the deadline has been pushed back to November 21, 2013 due to the “special and complex conditions of the case.”

Government weighs trade with some nations in local currencies
Mint, September 18
In an attempt to contain a bloated current account deficit that puts pressure on the rupee, India is exploring the possibility of trading in local currencies with some key trading partners. Countries like China and Japan have already shown interest in such an arrangement.

China plans to enter agri, pharma sectors in MP
Business Standard, September 22
China is exploring expanding its economic presence in Madhya Pradesh into industries such as agriculture and allied products, pharmaceuticals and infrastructure, including railways. Madhya Pradesh, for its part, is hoping to obtain an international marketing platform and the latest technical know-how from deepening economic ties with China.

India, China SMEs to explore greater business ties
Business Standard, September 23
Chinese and Indian small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are gathering for a New Delhi symposium organized by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). Attending SMEs come from sectors ranging from agricultural products to glassware and chemicals.

‘Widening trade deficit with China not sustainable’
The Hindu, September 23
At the India-China Business Matchmaking Symposium in New Delhi organized by CII, Indian Commerce Ministry Joint Secretary Asit Tripathy called for China and India to collaborate with each other to reduce the trade imbalance. For his part, Chinese Trade Development Bureau Vice-Director General Jia Guoyong assured participants that the Chinese government was taking all necessary steps to increase imports from India. 15 MOUs worth $338 million were signed during the symposium.

Lamborghini bullish on US and India as crackdown hits China sales
Reuters, September 23
Lamborghini sales are suffering in the wake of a Chinese government crackdown on conspicuous spending. The luxury carmaker is looking to India as a potentially lucrative market, though annual sales of luxury cars in India are only one percent of the total car market, compared with around 7 percent in China.

News Reports

Energy and Environment

To avoid crude supply shock, India can go the China way
The Hindu Business Line, September 16
While both China and India are dependent on crude oil imports to meet growing demand, China is being much more aggressive and has taken proactive measures to become more resilient to crude supply shocks. These measures include diversifying its supply portfolio, boosting strategic petroleum reserves and undergoing regulatory reforms of its energy industry.

China, US And India Highest Carbon Polluters From Coal-Fired Plants
International Business Times, September 17
China, the U.S. and India are the top three of 10 countries that account for more than 85 percent of global carbon emissions from coal-fired plants, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports. Coal-fired power plants account for more than 8.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions a year, which represents around one-quarter of the world’s carbon emissions, the report states.

India’s ONGC and Shell Buy Brazil Oil Field Stake
Wall Street Journal, September 19
India’s Oil & Natural Gas Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC will increase their stakes in a Brazilian oil field, blocking a bid from China’s Sinochem for the asset. Indian and Chinese companies have been jousting for many years over foreign oil and gas reserves needed to fuel their energy-deficient economies, and their competing efforts to acquire oil deposits lying off the Brazilian coast follow a recent struggle for access to huge reserves of hydrocarbons in Central Asia.

BASIC group comprising of Brazil, South Africa, India and China soften stance on hydrofluorocarbons
Economic Times, September 19
At a BASIC meeting in Brazil, Brazil, South Africa, India and China decided that the hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) issue should be dealt with “through relevant multilateral fora,” potentially opening a door for discussions to completely phase out HFCs. HFCs are among the six greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol, and previously the BASIC countries had refused to discuss the issue outside the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change.

Asia airs nuclear ambitions at U.N. gathering
Reuters, September 20
China and India joined other Asian countries to indicate that they would expand their use of atomic energy at the annual gathering of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) member states. The Chinese mainland currently has 17 operating nuclear power units, with another 28 under construction. India has 19 reactors in operations and plans to build 16 more.

Analyses and Commentaries

Who shall guard the guardians of India?
Asia Times, September 10
Aruni Mukherjee calls for a stronger Indian response to the Chinese “menace” at the border, comparing contemporary China to 1940s-era Germany. Mukherjee predicts that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will conduct a “full-scale invasion” of its disputed territory with India “maybe not in the next 10 years, but it will.”

Complex Issue, Hopeful Prospects
Beijing Review, September 12
Wu Zhaoli examines the insufficient mutual trust between China and India, primarily caused by the ongoing border dispute and India’s “anxiety” about the development gap. Trust between the two sides must be strengthened in order to reach a resolution on the border issue, a not impossible task.

India tweaks the dragon’s tail
ABC Radio Australia, September 12
Harsh Pant, in a radio interview, suggests that India’s increased presence in East Asia and South China Sea is India responding in kind to China’s activities in South Asia. India’s acceptance of Vietnam’s invitation for joint exploration in the South China Sea, which has irked China, is a recent example of India asserting itself against China.

Concern over China’s new Nepal mission
New Indian Express, September 15
Devirupa Mitra notes the expansion of the Chinese presence in Nepal, Beijing’s proposal to establish a new consulate in Pokhara in southern Nepal being the most recent development. Pokhara is a major transit point for Tibetans trying to reach India and the site of four Tibetan refugee camps.

Why Modi’s idea of a militarised India is a recipe for disaster
First Post, September 16
Wajahat Qazi cautions that war with China and Pakistan would be “detrimental” to India and that the Indian public should not heed Narendra Modi’s “rhetorical grandstanding” and “vile agenda.”

The China Rise and J&K
Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, September 16
D. Suba Chandran places China’s encroachment on the Indian border in the larger context of China’s rise and expanding role in the Asia Pacific. Chandran suggests that Beijing’s more aggressive policy at the Line of Actual Control (LoAC) is a response to its perception that India is growing closer to the United States and/or other countries in the region.

Agni V and the South Asian Balance of Power
DNA, September 16
Jaideep Prabhu counters speculation that China and India are on the brink of a Cold War-style arms race, as neither country has indicated that they are about to massively expand their arsenals. It is Pakistan’s anxiety over military developments in India and China’s reluctance to take India seriously as a nuclear power that will do more to destabilize regional stability.

Myanmar: Playing the Field of China, India, and the United States
Geopolitical Monitor, September 16
Zak Rose observes that Myanmar has been cultivating diplomatic and economic relationships with India and the United States in an attempt to break away from overdependence on China, its main benefactor while in political isolation from the international community.

India and China: Different Approaches to the Border
The Diplomat, September 17
Trividesh Singh Maini compares China’s aggressive strategy of integrating its border provinces with the rest of the country, while very few commentators and policymakers in India have been paying attention to the border regions at all. He calls for India to emulate China’s approach to boost Indian economic development and foreign policy cache.

Australia, India, Indonesia: A Trilateral Dialogue On Indian Ocean – Analysis
Eurasia Review, September 19
Ashok Malik argues that like many other countries – or perhaps more than other countries – India’s policy elite is transfixed by China’s rise and evolution in the international arena. In few other strategic communities is the “peaceful rise of China” so watched, debated, dissected and doubted as it is in India. Equally, in no geography is the rise of China more acutely felt than the Indo-Pacific, the continuum of the Eastern Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific.

Water stress
The Hindu, September 20
Chandrashekar Hariharan observes that China’s water efficiency far outstrips India. Per capita availability of water will decline by over 15 percent in India over the next two decades, while it will only decline by over 5 percent in China.  

India should convey to Pakistan and China that status of Siachen is irrevocable
The New Indian Express, September 21
Mohan Das Menon argues that, from a structural perspective, both Pakistan and China seem to adhere to a strategic ecosystem in which “internal affairs” shall invariably take precedence over external affairs and the military, overtly or covertly, shall have a dominant in shaping policy. New Delhi has to grasp that this dictates the contours of foreign policy in both Beijing and Islamabad.

‘India must decide what role it will play as a land power’
Asian Age, September 24
Yossef Bodansky argues that China understands that India’s civilization will not accept China’s civilizational hegemony, and thus China attempts “to stifle India and prevent it from rising. The troubles on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) serve to remind India who is the boss.”

A New China Engages India
Economic and Political Weekly, September 28
Zorawar Daulet Singh traces how China’s foreign policy towards India has evolved through internal factional struggles between reformers and leftists in the Chinese Communist Party.

Journal Articles and Publications

The India – China Border Conundrum
Indian Defense Review, September 12
Lt Gen Prakash Katoch notes that China is becoming increasingly aggressive across the Himalayas for multiple reasons. She takes pride in her ‘Middle Kingdom’ legacy but this mentality is laced with guilt from decades of humiliation. As she faces no serious external threat, chances of conflict in the East China Sea/South China Sea are few. Similarly, there is no serious existential threat to China but the restive regions of Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Tibet need to be managed deftly.

The Tilting Triangle: Geopolitics of the China-India-Pakistan Relationship
Comparative Strategy, September 2013
Paul J. Smith proposes two fundamental and enduring security structures of South Asia: the 1947 structure rooted in India’s partition and the following Indo-Pakistan wars, and the 1962 structure rooted in a Sino-Indian rivalry. Smith suggests that the 1962 structure will become the dominant security architecture in the region.

CHINESE AND INDIAN STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR: Growing Power and Alarm. By George J. Gilboy, Eric Heginbotham. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012 (review)
Pacific Affairs, September 2013
Sumit Ganguly finds significant flaws in George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham’s comparative work, mainly that the authors have a much better grasp of Chinese strategic culture than they do of India. Ganguly also finds that Gilboy and Heginbotham overstate China and India’s points of convergence while downplaying where they diverge.

Conferences and Call for Papers

India, Nepal & China Triangle: New Issues and Young Voices
Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies in collaboration with the India International Center, 27 September 2013