Journal Papers

  1. [Forthcoming]Understanding the Effects of Exchange Rates on the Cost of Living for Expatriates and Ordinary Residents in Singapore and Hong Kong

    [Forthcoming]Understanding the Effects of Exchange Rates on the Cost of Living for Expatriates and Ordinary Residents in Singapore and Hong Kong
    Publisher:
    International Journal of Markets and Business Systems [Italy]
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap & LUU Nguyen Trieu Duong
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2017
    Excerpt:

    It is important to factor in the effect that exchange rates have on cost of living rankings while computing cost of living indices, as conversion of local prices into a common currency is imperative for any ranking of cities in different parts of the world. Considering that such computations are going to be affected by exchange rate levels in the different cities, this paper empirically analyses the cases of Singapore and Hong Kong to understand the impact of exchange rates on their cost of living rankings. Our simulation analysis for these two global Asian cities shows that exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on the cost of living rankings for both expatriates and ordinary residents. In addition, our study indicates that cities in the developed Western countries are more expensive for ordinary residents than cities in less developed countries elsewhere, especially in Asia. We attribute this to structural differences in labour cost between these two sets of countries.

  2. [Forthcoming]Empirical Analysis of Growth Slowdown in ASEAN

    [Forthcoming]Empirical Analysis of Growth Slowdown in ASEAN
    Publisher:
    The Journal of Developing Areas (USA)
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, LUU Nguyen Trieu Duong & LIAN Xiao
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2016
    Excerpt:

    Robust economic growth across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies has lifted millions out of poverty and created a growing middle class. Nevertheless, further development is not guaranteed and concerns have been expressed about whether growth will be derailed and ASEAN economies will be caught in the middle-income trap. While there are potentials for future growth, there are also various domestic challenges and external headwinds for ASEAN members, especially the ongoing slowdown of the Chinese economy. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of growth slowdown for the ASEAN economies which are at different levels of development. We aim to answer two questions: First, are determinants of economic slowdown likely to differ across income groups? Second, what are the probabilities that economies in ASEAN will experience a growth slowdown in the near future? We construct a sample of 107 economies including ASEAN economies, Greater China economies, India and Indonesia sub-national economies. The sample spans the period 1993-2013.

  3. [Forthcoming]Measuring Agricultural Total Factor Productivity for the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Region

    [Forthcoming]Measuring Agricultural Total Factor Productivity for the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Region
    Publisher:
    International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development (Brazil)
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, Suo HAORAN & Ramkishen S. RAJAN
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2016
    Excerpt:

    The agricultural sector remains to be one of the key growth engines of countries in the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, underlining the importance of strong and sustained agricultural growth as well as enhanced productivity of the sector which could play an instrumental role in contributing to development of the region. In this context, this paper examines agricultural productivity across eight ASEAN countries over the period 2000-2011. The paper contributes to the growing literature on productivity measurement pertaining to agricultural sector in the ASEAN region by empirically estimating agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) through a combination of growth accounting as well as non-parametric techniques such as the Malmquist index data envelopment analysis. The empirical results reveal that ASEAN countries as a group had an average TFP growth around 1.5 percent over the period of consideration (2000-2011). Individually, the findings show that Malaysia outperforming other countries in terms of TFP growth, with the CLMV countries consisting of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, being laggards. The results also show a significant scope for greater collaboration among the ASEAN bloc of countries which can in turn enhance inter-region learning on agricultural technology and resource management.

  4. Economic Growth in East Java, Indonesia: A Geweke Causality Analysis

    Economic Growth in East Java, Indonesia: A Geweke Causality Analysis
    Publisher:
    International Journal of Business and Social Science, 7(7), pp.82-93, September 2016 (USA)
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap & Mulya AMRI
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2016; [Published] 2016
    Excerpt:

    This article presents a causality analysis of output growth in East Java, Indonesia’s second most competitive province after the capital city, Jakarta. We identify three variables which have stood out prominently for East Java: high output growth in the service sectors, a flexible labour market, and extensive infrastructure. Using a methodology developed by Geweke (1982), we measure the direction of causal effects between the three variables. Our findings confirm existing theories and research which argue that output growth is affected by the extent of infrastructure and quality of labour market. Such findings also support various calls for Indonesia to improve its infrastructure and labour market policies, and present East Java as case from which lessons could be drawn for other Indonesian provinces.

  5. Measuring Cost of Living for Ordinary Residents in Cities: A New Index

    Measuring Cost of Living for Ordinary Residents in Cities: A New Index
    Publisher:
    Business and Management Studies, 2(3), pp.52-77, 2016 (USA)
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap & LUU NGUYEN Trieu Duong
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2016; [Published] 2016
    Excerpt:

    Cost of living is an important indicator to track and monitor basic living standards for cities. There is no reliable and consistent index available in the literature for comparing the cost of living across different major cities to guide policy analysis. Commercial cost of living surveys, while very useful in facilitating compensation decisions for expatriate managers, are inadequate as they do not account for differences in consumption patterns among cities and also do not consider differences in lifestyles between ordinary residents and expatriates across cities. In this context, this paper makes a pioneering attempt in the literature to come up with a comprehensive way to measure the cost of living for ordinary residents of 103 cities in the world. One of the features of the paper‟s empirical methodology is that it makes a distinction between the cost of living for expatriates and ordinary residents. We focus on the results pertaining to ordinary residents in this paper.

  6. [Forthcoming]Assessing Development Strategies of Jiangsu and Taiwan: A Geweke Causality Analysis

    [Forthcoming]Assessing Development Strategies of Jiangsu and Taiwan: A Geweke Causality Analysis
    Publisher:
    Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, YUAN Randong and Sangitta YOONG Wei Cher
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2016
    Excerpt:

    Among the economies in the Eastern coastal area of mainland China, Jiangsu has stood out in terms of its rapid and sustained economic growth since 2000. The province has done exceptionally well in terms of competitiveness indicators, catching up quickly with the leading Greater China economy of Taiwan. Such convergence has triggered much academic and policy interest in terms of understanding the driving factors that have enabled Jiangsu to catch up with Taiwan. In this context, this paper empirically analyses the factors that have caused the convergence between the two economies from 2000 to 2011 by employing Geweke Causality analysis. By decomposing and examining the linear feedback between economic growth and vectors of variables capturing investments in infrastructure, human capital, science, technology and innovation activities, this paper confirms the important role played by those factors in the convergence between Jiangsu and Taiwan in recent years.

  7. [Forthcoming]Causal Drivers of International Tourism Industry in Tamil Nadu: A Geweke Causality Analysis

    [Forthcoming]Causal Drivers of International Tourism Industry in Tamil Nadu: A Geweke Causality Analysis
    Publisher:
    International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, Anuja TANDON and XIE Teleixi
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2016
    Excerpt:

    This paper is an attempt to understand the causal development mechanisms of the international tourism sector in the State of Tamil Nadu in India. Being able to identify the factors that affect the growth of the international tourism sector would enable the local government to better facilitate the growth of the sector. To achieve this objective, we employ a novel empirical methodology using the Geweke causality framework to investigate the causal drivers of the tourism industry. Our empirical results suggest that safety, transport infrastructure as well as cleanliness, sanitation and healthcare conditions are causal factors that significantly affect the development of international tourism sector in Tamil Nadu. Our empirical analysis also identifies several key policy implications for not just the state of Tamil Nadu but also other states with similar conditions on how to develop a robust international tourism sector.

  8. Growth Slowdown Analysis for Greater China Economies

    Growth Slowdown Analysis for Greater China Economies
    Publisher:
    Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 4(2), pp.129-144, 2016 (USA)
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, LIAN Xiao & XIE Teleixi
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2016; [Published] 2016
    Excerpt:

    The purpose of this paper to investigate empirically the determinants of growth slowdown in Greater China provinces at different levels of development. Much of the existing literature dealing with the question of whether China is or will be stuck in a middle-income trap has largely focused on the country as a whole. Given China’s regional diversity and variation in terms of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita, it is more appropriate to understand the dynamics of growth slowdown in the Greater China region at the sub-national and provincial level, which is what we do in this paper. We use income group-specific logistic regression models as well as Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) techniques to examine the impact of various determinants on the probability of a sub-national economy in Greater China region experiencing a growth slowdown.

  9. [Forthcoming]Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Transition Southeast Asian Economies: A Geweke Causality Analysis

    [Forthcoming]Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Transition Southeast Asian Economies: A Geweke Causality Analysis
    Publisher:
    Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, Sasidaran GOPALAN and NGUYEN Le Phuong Anh
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2016
    Excerpt:

    Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam (CLV) have come to be recognized as the new growth frontiers in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc, especially since the 2000s. Though all the CLV countries were hit by the global financial crisis (GFC), there has been a sharp recovery in all the economies from around 2010 or so, partly aided by the rapid development of their financial sector. While this has formed the basis for optimism about the growth potential of these countries, there have also been concerns that these countries have been experiencing a period of excessive credit growth – an offshoot of rapid financial deepening – which in turn is hampering growth and aggravating financial instability. In light of this discussion, this paper examines the nexus between financial deepening and economic growth using a Geweke causality framework using quarterly data for CLV countries from 1996 to 2010.

  10. Assessing Regional Competitiveness in Five Regions of India

    Assessing Regional Competitiveness in Five Regions of India
    Publisher:
    International Journal of Business Competition and Growth, 4(3/4), pp.192-219, 2015 (UK)
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, Kartik RAO & Sasidaran GOPALAN
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2015; [Published] 2015
    Excerpt:

    This paper analyses the relative competitiveness performance of the five regions of India. The 35 states and union territories of India are grouped into five regions to analyse how each region can pursue its own more stratified, diversified and tailored strategies based on their comparative advantages. The results highlight a distinct pattern of high competitiveness in the Southern and the Western region while the Eastern and the North Eastern regions remain relatively underdeveloped. The paper also advances a masterplan for regional economic development that would promote and achieve inclusive economic growth and balanced development. With the Indian Government embarking on a strategy of competitive federalism, this paper aims to contribute to the policy discourse from a bottom-up economic development perspective.

  11. Drivers of Growth in the Travel and Tourism Industry in Malaysia: A Geweke Causality Analysis

    Drivers of Growth in the Travel and Tourism Industry in Malaysia: A Geweke Causality Analysis
    Publisher:
    Economies, 4(1), 3, pp.1-15, 2016 (Switzerland)
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, Sasidaran GOPALAN and YE Ye
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2016; [Published] 2016
    Excerpt:

    The travel and tourism industry has been growing in importance for several developing countries. It has not only generated considerable foreign exchange revenues but has also contributed to the overall output and socio-economic development of these countries. Within the Asia and Pacific region, data for 2014 indicates that Malaysia was ranked very highly at no. 26 out of the 184 countries in the world in terms of the relative importance of the contribution of the travel and tourism industry to its national output. In this light, this paper aims to undertake an empirical examination of the factors driving international tourist arrivals into Malaysia. The paper attempts to identify the causal determinants of the growth of the travel and tourism industry, using quarterly data from 2000 to 2012, under a Geweke causality framework. The empirical results suggest Malaysia’s government expenditures on tourism promotion as well as infrastructure investments such as enhancing airport facilities are causal and significant determinants of growth in the travel and tourism industry.

  12. Development Growth Models for Singapore and Malaysia: A Geweke Causality Analysis

    Development Growth Models for Singapore and Malaysia: A Geweke Causality Analysis
    Publisher:
    Journal of Centrum Cathedra: The Business and Economics Research Journal, 8(2), pp.165-186, 2015 (Peru)
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, NGUYEN Le Phuong Anh, YE Ye Denise
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2016; [Accepted] 2015
    Excerpt:

    Both Malaysia and Singapore have been viewed as success stories in economic development and are widely hailed as role models for other developing countries to follow. While Singapore has already moved to a high-income status fueled in part by the rapid development and upgrading of the services sector, Malaysia has become a bona fide upper middle income country, trying to move into the high-income category. Nearly five decades after undergoing a structural transformation and navigating several external shocks, both countries are now grappling with some crucial policy challenges that constrain their growth momentum. In this light, this paper aims to empirically explore the drivers of economic growth in both Singapore and Malaysia, using data from 1975 to 2012 under a Geweke causality framework. The empirical results suggest Malaysia’s new development trajectory should lie in rebalancing the economy toward greater domestic demand and building a robust services sector and Singapore should embrace a growth model that goes beyond relying heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI) as a source of economic growth.

  13. Drivers of Growth in the Travel and Tourism Industry in Thailand and Singapore: A Geweke Causality Analysis

    Drivers of Growth in the Travel and Tourism Industry in Thailand and Singapore: A Geweke Causality Analysis
    Publisher:
    Public Enterprise Quarterly, 22(1), pp.56-78, 2016 (Slovenia)
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, TAN Beng Kai Evan, KWAN Wen Seng Vincent
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2016; [Published] 2016
    Excerpt:

    Tourism is one of the fastest growing economic sectors in Southeast Asian countries, especially in the cases of Thailand and Singapore. Tourism and travel has been promoted as an integral part of the national development strategies for decades in these two countries. In this light, the paper identifies the causal determinants of the growth of the travel and tourism industry in Thailand and Singapore, using quarterly data from 2000-2012, under a Geweke causality framework. The empirical results suggest that for Thailand specifically, religious unrest, capturing an element of domestic instability and turbulence seems to affect international tourist arrivals significantly. In the case of Singapore, empirical results suggest that international tourist arrivals are driven by infrastructural variables covering airport facilities as well as government policy variables, such as government expenditures on the tourism industry.

  14. Empirical Assessment on the Liveability of Cities in Greater China Region

    Empirical Assessment on the Liveability of Cities in Greater China Region
    Publisher:
    Competitiveness Review, 26(1), pp.2-24, 2016 (UK)
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, NIE Tongxin, BAEK Shinae
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2015; [Published] 2016
    Excerpt:

    Against the backdrop of the ongoing trend of rapid and extensive urbanisation observed in China, "liveability" is being given an increasingly higher priority by the Chinese government. However, there has been no attempt to empirically measure this concept and to examine its nexus to the narrower concept of competitiveness. This paper applies a comprehensive Liveability Cities index to rank the liveability of 100 cities in the Greater China region.

  15. [Forthcoming] Estimating Provincial Agricultural Total Factor Productivity in Mainland China

    [Forthcoming] Estimating Provincial Agricultural Total Factor Productivity in Mainland China
    Publisher:
    International Journal of Business Performance Management, 17(4), pp.394-412, 2016 (UK)
    Author/s:
    TAN Khee Giap, SUO Haoran, & Ramkishen RAJAN
    Year:
    [Accepted] 2015; [Published] 2016
    Excerpt:

    Despite rapid industrialization, agriculture remains an important source of livelihood for one third of the population in China. The purpose of this paper is to analyse agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and its components for mainland China between 1990 and 2012 at a provincial level. Growth accounting and Malmquist index methodologies are used to measure the TFP growth in 30 Chinese provinces over the period 1990-2012. Results suggest that technical change (TC) has generally been improving rapidly for most provinces. However, of some concern is the fact that Technical efficiency change (TEC) is generally stagnant across most provinces. Jiangsu stands out in its TFP performance, while Tibet and Yunnan are clear laggards.